Will it hold $1.28?

The price of the digital currency XRP passed the level of $ 1.31 after a sharp resistance at the level of $ 1.35, leaving traders with disappointing results due to the attempt of an explosion that seemed to be reliable.

This 2% decrease is small; The most important thing is the combination of resistance in the price and a large decrease in the depth of the order book, an arrangement that historically leads to very sharp movements.

The failed push attempt came after reaching a peak of $1.37 on March 31, when XRP was unable to clear the $1.40 resistance, and continued to fall within the $1.28-$1.33 range since then.

The recent trend toward $1.35 now appears to represent a distribution point rather than a starting point. The market capitalization currently stands at $80.6 billion, with a 24-hour trade of just $2.01 billion; This decline in participation confirms that the problem of money management is real. The chart now poses a superficial question: Will $1.28 hold, or will the next support at $1.15 come out faster than buyers expect?

XRP: Regaining $1.35 or falling to $1.15?

XRP is currently trading below the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) ($1.38) and the 200-day EMA ($1.88). The price remains within the downtrend on the 4-hour chart, with the 50-day and 200-day SMA acting as upper barriers.

The daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) reading is 38, which indicates a slight weakness but has not yet reached a sell point, meaning there is no solid technical basis to base this indicator on its own. The MACD is also negative and trending lower, negating any suggestion of an upward trend.

Major resistance stands at $1.3500, while support levels are $1.3000 and $1.2698. The $1.28 level has been there since February, in line with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level; Below this level, bearer support weakens significantly to $1.15.

The bullish case calls for a clean recovery of the $1.35 level supported by strong trading volume – not the tail of the candle, but a close price – followed by a hold above the 50-day EMA at $1.38.

This sequence opens the way to $1.45, and with support, it can reach $1.60, which is in line with the administration of the “CLARITY Act”, which has a 63% chance of passing in 2026 according to market expectations. Long-term analysts are optimistic about stability, but these developments require more economic stimulus — such as the Fed’s stance and a reduction in global tensions — that are not currently available.

As for the bearish situation, it is caused by a confirmed daily closing below the $1.28 level. Analysts are pointing to $1.15 as the next important support, with the worst target at $0.80 based on oil prices rising above $100 and the Fed continuing to hold interest rates in the second quarter.

The hard truth is that XRP has fallen by almost 30% since the beginning of the year and 64% from the all-time high of $3.65, and every burst has been sold. The most important level at the moment is $1.28; Keeping it keeps the range stable, while losing it makes $1.15 the next stop.