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Analysts warned that the price of Bitcoin could face a sharp decline, with worst estimates reaching 80%, after U.S. President Trump’s comments about the continued escalation of the conflict with Iran triggered a new wave of selling.
The price of Bitcoin fell from about $69,000 to less than $67,000 after markets reassessed the possibility of a longer war.
But a report published by “XWIN Research Japan” stated that this decline was not only the result of political news, but also exposed structural weaknesses in the derivatives market related to Bitcoin.
The report believes that Trump’s remarks changed the expectations of investors, who had been waiting for signs that the crisis would subside, but his remarks that the situation may worsen in the next two to three weeks prompted investors to reduce their exposure to high-risk assets.
Meanwhile, U.S. and Asian stock markets fell and oil and dollar prices rose, factors that typically weigh on digital currency markets.
The report also pointed out that traditional financial market stress indicators such as the VIX fear index have increased, and the pressure on the U.S. bond market has expanded, reflecting declining liquidity and rising public anxiety.
Analysts say the situation has a negative impact on Bitcoin, just like it does on stocks.
One of the most prominent risks cited in the report is a significant increase in open interest on the CME Group’s Bitcoin futures contracts, with a clear concentration on short-term contracts.
This means that price movements have more to do with leveraged positions than actual demand in the spot market.
During times of stress, liquidating these positions can lead to a rapid wave of selling, exacerbating the decline.
The report also noted that Bitcoin was already suffering losses before these announcements, with Bitcoin down 22.2% through the first quarter of 2026, its worst first-quarter performance since the 2018 bear market.
The report lists three possible negative scenarios:
In less severe cases, the price may drop from $70,000 to $50,000, a loss of between 25% and 30%.
However, if outflows from Bitcoin exchange-traded funds continue and demand weakens, the price could fall to between $20,000 and $30,000, a loss of up to 70%.
In the worst-case scenario, if the conflict escalates significantly or the Strait of Hormuz is closed, the price of Bitcoin could fall to $10,000, a drop of nearly 80%.
Of course, all of this is speculation and analysis, which may or may not be correct, and does not constitute investment advice.
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Coinbase optimistic about upcoming resolution of U.S. digital currency regulatory issues
