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Oil prices continued to rise on Monday as stalled U.S.-U.S. peace talks stalled, raising fears of continued disruption to crude oil supplies in the Middle East.
With the Strait of Hormuz effectively closed, Goldman Sachs raised its expectations for Brent, cautioning against stocks as the global market faces a supply shock.
Goldman raises Brent expectations for the fourth quarter to $90
In a note on Monday, analysts expected Dan Streifen and Liya Zistkova Grigsby Tossby to push the Brent crude price to $90 per barrel in the fourth quarter. This is a 12.5% ​​jump from their previous estimate of $80. Goldman also adjusted its expectations for growth for the second and third quarters.
The revised forecast comes as supply disruptions mount. according to for estimates the bank, the production losses amounting to 14.5 million barrels per day from the Persian Gulf are affecting global oil to the bottom of the bottle Estimates range from 11 to 12 million barrels per day throughout the month of April.
He warned the sellers that “excess withdrawal of the stock is not sustainable”, which indicates that there is a larger unsustainable stock in demand if the supply crisis continues.
Goldman also expects a supply shortfall of 9.6 million barrels per day for the current quarter. This is a reflection of the profit we saw during the same period last year.
“We are now assuming the normalization of Gulf exports by the end of June, compared to May 2018. The economic risks of the Gulf are slower than indicated by the situation. Due to the net risks of rising oil prices, the high prices of commodity products, the risk of product shortages, and the unprecedented size of the shock.”
Recent research indicates that even the rapid opening of the strait will not prevent the return of al-Bri checking. This raises more fears for the energy markets.
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At the same time, it faced diplomatic efforts rear end weekend, which added to the uncertainty. President Donald Trump trip planned to Pakistan envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner.
Hormuz is still the central conflict point. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Arghji traveled to Moscow on Monday to meet with Vladimir Putin. The trip was extended by a regional trip that included Pakistan and Oman during the weekend.
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