CoinGecko reveals the best time to buy Bitcoin

A new study from CoinGecko shows that buying Bitcoin during certain U.S. holidays has historically produced higher short-term returns compared to regular trading days.

The study analyzed Bitcoin’s performance between May 2013 and May 2026, focusing on returns recorded the day after purchase.

Data shows that the average daily return on purchases during U.S. holidays is about 0.77%, compared with only 0.19% on weekdays. In 11 of the 14 years studied, holidays performed better than traditional days in 11 years.

New Year’s Day ranks first as the best time to buy Bitcoin, with an average daily return of 2.01% and a success rate of over 84%, followed by Columbus Day, with a return of 1.70%, and Christmas, with an average return of 1.46%.

“CoinGecko” said this phenomenon may be related to the so-called January effect in financial markets, in which investors reinject liquidity at the beginning of the new year after the tax selling pressure ends in December.

On the other hand, Martin Luther King Jr. Day performed the worst, with an average decline of 0.84%, while Independence Day also ranked among the historically negative days.

Research also shows that there is almost no difference between Bitcoin’s performance on weekdays and weekends, reflecting the 24/7, non-stop nature of the digital currency market.

Despite these short-term patterns, CoinGecko explained that purchase timing did not have a significant impact on long-term annual returns, as performance remained relatively similar regardless of the date of entry into the market.

The research comes as Bitcoin attempts to re-stabilize levels above $80,000 after a wave of volatility amid selling pressure and high bets on a decline in derivatives markets temporarily pushed it below that level.

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