Bitcoin narrowly avoids worst monthly losses…what awaits in April?

After a month filled with volatility due to tensions in the Middle East, Bitcoin managed to post modest gains at the end of March, avoiding its worst monthly losing streak in history.

Now, all eyes are on April and the second quarter of the year as investors try to understand the market’s next direction.

March marks the end of a long losing streak:

Although Bitcoin earlier recorded all-time highs, it subsequently entered a strong bearish wave that lasted for several months.
According to CoinGlass data, the coin fell:

• Growth in October was 3.7%.
• It exceeded 17.5% in November.
• It was about 3% in December.
• This was followed by double-digit declines in January and February 2026.

As a result, Bitcoin closed lower for five consecutive months, which is considered an indicator of a bear market.

March is a decisive month. A lower close would equal the worst losing streak of 2018-2019.

But a last-minute jump in prices to around $68,000 helped the currency edge up 1.8% at the end of the month.

However, the performance in the first quarter of 2026 was negative, with Bitcoin falling 22.2% after falling 23% in the last quarter of 2025, recording its worst quarterly performance since 2018.

What happens in April?

Historically, April is considered a positive month for Bitcoin, as the currency has seen strong gains in certain years, particularly between 2016 and 2020, with gains even reaching 50% in 2013.

Bitget Wallet research analyst Lacey Zhang believes that despite geopolitical tensions, the outlook remains cautious but optimistic.

She explained:

• Bitcoin and stablecoins are increasingly used to move funds out of conflict zones.
• Its correlation with traditional markets remains low.
• Interest from large investors is growing.

This means that despite volatility, demand for digital currencies remains strong.

Possible scenarios for the second quarter:

According to analysis:

• If the war continues and oil prices rise above $120
  Bitcoin could fall to around $55,000, Ethereum to around $1,500
• if the situation calms down:
  Bitcoin could rise above $90,000, Ethereum to $2,700

Another factor that is expected to affect market performance is the CLARITY Act, but the probability of its approval this year is between 40% and 60%.

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