Bitcoin awaits inflation data: Are we seeing $75,000 or a drop to $60,000?

Bitcoin is consolidating below $70,000, waiting for an event planned this week that could break the trend in either direction: the release of the March Consumer Price Index (CPI) data on April 10 at 8:30 AM EST. The decisions seem to be recent and logical; If US inflation is not strong enough to push the Federal Reserve toward more accommodative rate-cutting language, $75,000 will be Bitcoin’s technical target. However, if the core inflation index remains stable above 0.3% per month, the phenomenon of “high interest rates for a long time” will strengthen its presence, creating a path of resistance that goes to $ 60,000 to $ 62,000.

The Cleveland Fed’s Nowcast estimate, based on late March data, shows a 0.84% ​​month-over-month jump across the board, led by a 26.2% year-over-year increase in gasoline prices and a 50.4% increase in diesel prices. If this reading is confirmed, it would represent a significant increase from the 0.27% recorded in February, effectively cooling any talk of changing the Fed’s policy until mid-summer. The main cryptocurrency trading desks have already begun to rise in price in two very different countries in terms of decisions, and Thursday’s report will decide which one we live in.

Bitcoin price predictions: recovery to $75,000 or drop to $60,000?

Bitcoin is currently moving between $ 65,000 and $ 71,000, a pressure point that has been there for several weeks and is now forming what the chart shows is a decision. The level of $ 73,700 represents the upper resistance; Above that is the theoretical ceiling at $75,000, which has been a significant level since Bitcoin’s last attempt to fail.

A weekly close above $75,000 driven by the volume of trades made and the increase in prices would be the first confirmation that the activity remains valid.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) during the daily period is close to 53, which is a neutral level that does not indicate oversold, meaning that there is no technical bottom created due to exhaustion. In contrast, the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) is aligned with the support area at $67,500, which makes this level important in the near term. Any daily close below $67,500 will open the door to $62,000, where there is a lot of money in the order book and how it has already been expanded. The MVRV ratio remaining below 1.5 indicates that the market has not reached a happy point, but it also means that the pressure to buy on the chain has not succeeded in achieving sustainable development.

The trend calls for an inflation-driven move to riskier assets above $71,000, with a return to $73,700 for sustained trading, and a definitive close at $75,000. As for the later events, it will be opened when the price data is released, which will cause the price to be rejected at $ 71,000, and fall again and break the 200-day moving average, heading for the collection point between $ 60,000 and $ 62,000. For traders with existing positions, a move below $66,000 should be followed by a significant risk before Thursday. The minimum requirement is currently $71,000; Holding after the release of the data means that the opportunity to go up remains, while the loss makes $ 62,000 the next stop.

Why April 10 Inflation Data Redraws Fed Schedule and Bitcoin Cap?

The relationship between Bitcoin and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) is not accidental, but mechanical; The inflation index drives expectations of government interest rates, and these expectations move the dollar and bond yields, and the strength of the dollar directly forces the interest of institutions in the economy, including Bitcoin. The February data recorded inflation of 2.4% year-on-year, with the standard rate fixed at 2.5% for the second month in a row, led by an increase in housing costs by 0.2%, which kept the Fed’s position to follow “high interest rates for a long time” as the main strategy before the April data.

The margin indicating a change in Fed policy is a monthly reading of an average of 0.2% or less; Any reading above 0.3% will strengthen the current policy and delay the first cut. The CME FedWatch tool currently projects interest rates in the lower two-percent range for 2025, a much higher rate than the four-percent consensus that began the year. Energy remains an unknown variable; The Fed’s Cleveland estimate is driven almost entirely by inflation in gasoline and diesel, and the Fed’s historical record often skips strong components of volatility when analyzing inflation trends. If the index comes in when the fundamentals are still under control, traders can interpret this as a green signal.

March non-farm payrolls added 178,000 jobs, with the unemployment rate holding steady at 4.3%, a labor market that does not signal a recession and thus provides cover for the Fed to continue with current interest rates. The US inflation rate on April 10 will not only move the price of Bitcoin on that day, but it will repeat the entire period of interest rate cuts as the crypto market is built.

Spot ETFs from companies such as BlackRock (IBIT) and Fidelity (FBTC) have shown high interest in inflation rates exceeding or falling short of their expectations, with rising data at the same time tightening the spigot on these movements.

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