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The price of Bitcoin doesn’t look bad at all, but Arthur Hayes just released his most controversial financial statement, saying that the biggest threat to BTC is not arrows flying in the Middle East. Hayes, chief investment officer at Maelstrom and co-founder of BitMEX, expects the price to reach between $500,000 and $750,000 by the end of 2026, but the path to that goal is through “mining areas” that markets have not yet reached.
In many discussions through How to make money on YouTubeHayes argued that the migration of skilled workers due to AI is the main force undermining the power that is weighing on the crypto market. Although he admits that the future of oil reflects the geopolitical conflicts between Israel and Iran, Hayes believes that the wave of layoffs because the implementation of the wisdom of drilling leads to tightening of debt, reducing consumption, and delaying the liquid boom that Bitcoin wants.
Hayes eloquently describes BTC as a “water smoke alarm,” a device that only goes off when the credit taps are turned on. With the Relative Strength Index (RSI) operating in neutral, the chart confirms that Bitcoin is in a holding pattern. And it remains The situation in the Middle East is changing It involves short-term fluctuations in both directions.
Bitcoin’s current price of $70,700 puts the currency in the mainstream. Traders are looking for an important technical level at $76,000, where support is close to recent prices, with the deepest activity looking at $75,000 before anything breaks, according to Hayes’ interim road map.
An RSI of around 50 indicates the absence of overbought or oversold, indicating a converging trend with a downward trend.
If the conflict between Israel and Iran prompts the Fed to adopt emergency monetary measures, BTC could surpass the $76K resistance and run to 30% of Hayes’ $250K mid-term target, supported by a long history of interest rate cuts following sovereign crises.

However, AI-induced deflation and debt consolidation may keep BTC within the price range of $70,000-$74,000 until Q3 2026, with the remaining explosion at the Federal Reserve indicating a change in policy.
Accelerating unemployment due to AI may also exacerbate shocks more than war-driven investments can resolve; Then the price of Bitcoin could test the levels below $70,000 again, thwarting Hayes’ predictions for the end of the year.
It is worth noting (it is something that Hayes does not think to mention) that his recent prediction of the price reaching $ 200,000 by March 2026 did not appear, since BTC remained close to $ 71,000. Bold goals require bold reinforcement, and the Fed and the military appear to be the only changes that matter here.
Bitcoin’s stability at $70,000 and resistance at $76,000 tells a familiar story to market watchers: The big move has yet to happen. BTC, a major currency at current prices, offers an opportunity to outperform unless Hayes’ milestones are met, a prospect fraught with uncertainty.
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A new episode is coming out. Few see it at first.
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