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The price of Bitcoin (BTC) has recorded a decrease of almost 3% since the weekend following the failure of the ceasefire talks between the United States and Iran in Islamabad.
The largest cryptocurrency fell below $71,000 today. It was trading at around $70,960 at the time of writing.
Blockchain data reveals wealth transfer as Bitcoin declines on US and Iran news
Blockchain data reveals a different story beneath the surface panic. According to an analyst, the military tensions spooked retail investors, but the institutional capital continued to buy. Five key indicators support this hypothesis.
The total flow of Bitcoin on Binance (SMA-30) recorded an average of about -1,350 BTC, equivalent to about $96 million. Negative flows indicate coins leaving Binance at a high rate.
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The Exit Profit Ratio (SOPR) index for short-term investors across all platforms was 1.0018.
The analyst stated that the mathematical judgment is indisputable: losses have been exceeded in the past 182 days, as 148 days (81.32%) are below 1.00. Today, these investors liquidate their positions almost to the break-even point to escape volatility, offering cheap liquidity to those who set the rules of the game.
Global exchange reserves were monitored to drop to around 2.69 million BTC, where they became less than the seven-day average. This difference reflects about 4,500 BTC, or about $316 million, withdrawn to cold wallets during the height of geopolitical uncertainty.
The publication indicated that the scenario proves that the decline today is not a reflection of the trend, but rather a violent transfer of wealth disguised as a total economic panic. He explained that the data show that betting against the market in view of this structural drought of liquidity means facing the bulldozer of the institutions.
The behavior of Bitcoin whales confirms the change
A separate analysis by Amr Taha reinforced this conclusion. The 30-day flow of whales to Binance fell to $2.96 billion, as the flow fell below $3 billion for the first time since June 2025.
The decrease in whale flows indicates that large holders have stopped sending BTC to exchanges for the purpose of potential sales.
At the same time, the 30-day change in the realized value of long-term holders (LTH) reserves rose to $49 billion on April 9, marking the second return to this level since March 26.
On the other hand, the change in the realized value of the Reserve of Short-Term Holders (STH) decreased to -54 billion dollars, which is the third decrease below -50 billion dollars since the beginning of March. The analyst said that the weaker holders distribute while the longer holders absorb the available amount.
Whether this transition of accumulation into a price recovery depends on whether the impasse between the United States and Iran intensifies or results in a diplomatic breakthrough in the coming days.
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