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ZCash had a short-term rebound, but the bigger picture remains murky. After hitting a local low on January 10, the price of Zcash has rebounded by about 16%. This refund came despite the token continuing to fall more than 20% during the week and falling again in the last 24 hours. Beneath the surface, the series data shows an aggressive build-up of whales.
At the same time, trend signals, exchange flows and the intelligent behavior of money continue to indicate risks. This creates an obvious conflict: is this rebound the beginning of a recovery, or just a pause before going down another leg?
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Positive divergence and whale accumulation explain the rebound
The rebound didn’t happen suddenly. Between the 6th of December and the 10th of January, Zcash posted a subtle divergence of holding in the Positive Index Index. appearance Zcash price The low was a higher high, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI), a momentum indicator that measures buying and selling power, formed a lower low. This pattern often indicates that the selling pressure weakens before the price reacts.
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The behavior of the whales is consistent with that signal. In the last seven days, he intervened The biggest holders of Zcash strong Mega Wallets increased their stake by 39.07%, bringing their total balance to 45,103 ZEC.
Smaller whale wallets also added, increasing by 17.63% to 10,405 ZEC wallets. Therefore, the total purchase of whales amounts to $5.7 million in the last seven days.
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The portfolios of public figures increased by about 20% in the same period. This stable construction explains why the RSI divergence pushed the price higher and why Zcash was able to bounce back from the January low on January 10.
EMA risks increase as spot outflows decrease
However, the rebound is facing structural resistance. price Zikash It is now trading below the main Exponential Moving Average (EMA). The economic average gives more weight to recent prices and helps determine the direction of the trend. The 20-day CMA is heading for a bearish crossover below the 50-day EMA, a setup that often identifies rebounds and restarts downtrends. These levels also act as overhead resistance.
Spot exchange flows reinforce this risk. While Zcash still shows net exchange flows, meaning coins are leaving exchanges rather than entering for sale, the intensity of exchanges has decreased dramatically. On January 7, net inflows rose to about $35.6 million.
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Since then it has fallen to about $10.7 million, a drop of nearly $25 million, or nearly 70%. This suggests that as the whales continue to accumulate, some selling or hesitancy may return, as sentiment remains fragile.
However, this setting is not new. In late December, a similar crossover risk emerged in ongoing economic markets. At that time, sustained whale buying caused the 20-day NMA to move above the 50-day NMA instead of crossing below. This divergence led to a 38.36% rally in Zcash. The market is now looking at whether the current whale accumulation can still overcome the decrease in sales demand and prevent the downward transition from continuing.
Smart Money remains cautious, with $300 Zcash price risks in mind
The final signal comes from the Smart Money Index (SMI). This indicator tracks how informed traders are compared to selling behavior. When it stops below the signal line, it often indicates caution and downside risks in the trend. The Smart Money Zcash Index is still well below this line.
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The last time it fell so suddenly, between the end of November and the beginning of December, it fell ZEC price By more than 50%. The SMI line seems to have stabilized for now, as there is one good point worth mentioning.
On the derivatives side, smart money positioning has started to increase net buying in the last 24 hours. This suggests that some traders (on the derivatives side) are betting on a rebound. But this bet remains conditional.
To redeem, Zcash must recover $408 and then surpass $459 and $483. Until that happens, the moving average structure and weak flow keep downside risks alive. A clean break below $361 would reopen the path towards $300.
The rebound of Zikash is real, and the purchase of whales explains. But Hulk still controls. Until the reverse trend signals, whale accumulation and intelligent positioning of better money alone may not be enough to kill the $300 risk.
