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Today, the XRP price traded close to $1.38, showing the first signs of stabilization after weeks of weakness. On the chart, a familiar retracement pattern began to form, similar to the previous formations that led to strong risks. But the spot and derivative series data do not confirm this optimism.
Buying pressure has decreased sharply, long holders are starting to pull, and leverage risks remain high. This creates a conflict between what the charts indicate and the actual behavior of the investor.
The XRP price is forming a familiar rebound pattern
Since the end of January, XRP is formed A structure that previously paved the way for strong recoveries.
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During the period from January 31 to February 11, the price recorded lower lows while the Relative Strength Index or RSI made higher lows. RSI measures buying and selling strength. When the price becomes weaker and the RSI improves, it indicates that the selling pressure is relieved and the momentum may be reversed.
Similar formations were also repeated on the 12-hour chart at the end of December 2025.
In that period, XRP showed the same deviation before retrieving the 20-period EMA on January 2. After retrieving this average, the price rose by more than 28%. Now, the structure looks similar again. The Exponential Moving Average is a trend indicator that gives more weight to recent prices to reflect short-term momentum.
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Current divergences indicate that the downward momentum is slowing. if Allow XRP By recovering the $1.50 area, which is roughly in line with the 20 EMA and the previous resistance, it can attract stronger interest from buyers.
But the spot series data does not support the recovery theory. At least, not yet.
Flows from exchanges and holders show that buying has collapsed
The spot chain indicators explain why the recovery signal is weak.
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The change in net positions on exchanges is one of the key indicators. This indicator measures how the total amount of XRP on exchanges has changed in the last 30 days. Simply put, it shows whether exchange balances are increasing or decreasing on a monthly basis. When the number is significantly negative, the exchange balances decrease, often indicating accumulation or transfers abroad.
XRP was registered on February 8th Net flows About 107 million tokens. As of February 11, flows have decreased to around 16 million tokens.
This represents an 85% collapse in buying pressure. This means that investors will no longer reduce stock balances at the same rate. Demand weakened dramatically, even when the chart showed a bullish setup.
The same pattern is seen in the Positive Change Index for Net Holding Positions, which tracks wallets that have held XRP for more than 155 days.
On February 1st, long holders added about 337 million XRP. On February 11, his accumulation had dropped to about 128 million XRP.
This represents a decrease of more than 60%.
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Exchange balances have simply increased, clearly driven by a decrease in long-term accumulation. Investors who generally support strong recoveries remain conservative. But why?
The risks of derivatives explain why holders are hesitant
In the Binance perp XRP/USDT market, medium-term settlement data shows that broken short trades are dominant. In the next 30 days, exposure to liquidation of sellers is about $148 million, while exposure to buyers is close to $83 million.
This data shows that traders are defensive and taking positions towards downside risks. The long-termers seem to take the part of the majority here.
Short-term positions reveal a different story.
In a daily time frame, this time on Gate, the long qualifiers reached about $63.9 million, while the short qualifiers reached about $51 million. This means that 30% of the positions are currently exposed to the longer side. If the price of XRP falls even slightly, according to a weak and fearful market, long positions can be quickly forced out, leading to a deeper crash.
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Long-term investors are aware of this risk, as long-term liquidations have previously dented optimism. Therefore, instead of chasing a weak rebound, they wait for confirmation and stand by medium-term positions, especially short positions. This is why the immediate buying pressure has not returned even though there is a bullish divergence.
XRP price levels to follow now
With technical optimism clashing with weak conviction, price levels are now what matter most. The key level is located near $1.34.
This area corresponds to the largest pool for the liquidation of long positions. BeanCrypto notes that if the XRP price closes below $1.34, this could trigger forced selling and invalidate the bounce structure. In this case, the price may fall towards $1.12. As for the increase, $1.50 remains the decisive barrier.
This level corresponds to the period 20 EMA and psychological resistance. A sustained move above $1.50 is likely to restore confidence and bring back long-term buyers. Without this breakthrough, the rebounds are likely to be unstable.
Right now, XRP is stuck between improving momentum and declining confidence. The graph indicates that the pressure has dropped.
The chain’s data indicates a lack of demand. The derived data suggest that the risks remain high. The recovery hypothesis remains invalid unless XRP maintains a level above $1.34 and recovers to $1.50.
