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Note that the price of XRP moved almost constantly in the last 24 hours and last week. This sideways movement reflects a clear state of hesitation in the market. On the surface, institutional activities seem supportive. XRP ETFs have recorded three consecutive weeks of flows. But beneath this positive trend, a hidden weakness is quietly developing.
Various technical and on-chain signals indicate that XRP may be closer to collapse than it appears.
ETF flows remain positive, but institutional strength is fading fast
I registered XRP Spot ETF Inflows for three consecutive weeks. The week ended February 6 saw an inflow of $36.04 million. By the week ending February 20, flows had dropped to just $1.84 million.
This represents an almost 95% drop in weekly flows over three weeks.
The flow of funds reflects the amount of institutional money coming into the asset. Increased flows usually indicate growth in confidence. But the declining flows, even if they remain positive, indicate that institutional conviction is rapidly weakening.
This institutional slowdown is already visible on the chart. decrease XRP Don The weekly volume weighted average price (vwap) on February 18 has not been able to recover this line since then.
vwap represents the volume weighted average price. It is widely used as an index based on the company’s costs and is considered a reference point for large investors.
When the price falls below vwap, it means that the institutions keep their positions in a medium loss, and this often reduces their desire to buy again. The last time XRP broke the weekly vwap, it fell almost 26%. The correction from February 18 is still ongoing.
At the same time, XRP is about to form a hidden negative divergence between February 6th and February 20th. During this period, the price of XRP seems to be registering a lower high. But the relative strength index (RSI) has already formed a higher high.
Measure momentum with the RSI indicator. When the momentum increases but the price fails to follow, this indicates a weak recovery force and a possible extension of the downward trend for XRP if it breaks the $1,379 level. A clear price confirmation will occur if the current price of XRP fails to reach or exceed $1,439.
Weak ETF flows, missing VWAP and downward divergence show that institutional strength is fading despite a positive ETF streak.
The trading platform flows and buys the dip explaining why the price has not collapsed yet
Note that despite falling below the VWAP indicator, XRP has not collapsed as before. Series data help explain this.
One of the basic indicators is the change in the net currency position on the platforms. This indicator tracks whether the coins are moving on or off the platforms. Output usually indicates buying, while lower output shows weak demand.
It was recorded that on February 18, the withdrawal of coins from exchanges reached close to 71.32 million XRP coins. Recently, flows have dropped to around 41.69 million XRP. This represents a decrease of approximately 41%.
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This shows that the buying pressure has weakened significantly, but it is still there.
Have another indicator show that buyers are still active. The money flow index, or MFI, tracks the real capital inflow of an asset. Between February 6th and February 19th, go The price of XRP is falling.
But the MFI index has trended higher. This gap highlights that dip buyers slowly accumulate even when the price weakens.
This bearish buying helps explain XRP’s relative stability after the VWAP loss. Buyers absorb sales pressure. This has prevented an immediate collapse so far. However, this support remains limited. If the purchase has weakened on the decline, the downside risk can grow quickly.
The XRP price makes a decisive test at $1.25, where the cost base rally becomes the final support.
The cost base data now shows this XRP is getting closer From a critical support zone. The cost base represents the prices at which investors purchased XRP.
These levels often act as strong support or resistance. The most important support pool is currently near $1.26, where there are more than 159 million XRP.
A large number of holders bought XRP in this area. As long as this level holds, the XRP price can avoid a deeper decline of more than 12% even if the immediate support area at $1.35-$1.37 is broken.
However, if XRP falls below $1.26 ($1.259 on the chart), selling pressure may accelerate sharply. The next big bearish levels will appear near $1,162 and $1,024.
To get the advantage, XRP must first recover $1,439. A stronger recovery requires a move above $1,476 and $1,549. Only a break above $1,670 will completely eliminate the bearish momentum.
Currently, XRP remains stuck between weak institutional support and constant buying dips. ETF flows remain positive but are declining rapidly.
Technical signals and on the chain indicate that $1,259 is now the most important level that can determine the next major move for XRP, especially if the negative skewness and the weak average price of the trade continue to appear.
