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The price of XRP is trading near $1.90, down about 9% in the last 24 hours adding to its 30-day decline of about 19%. Some oversold signals have emerged, especially from short-term holders.
But the price of XRP still seems far from recovery. This article explains why the refund hasn’t happened yet.
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Surrender has appeared in the short term, but recovery is missing
The NUPL index of short-term holders, which measures unrealized gain or loss, fell to -0.30, the lowest reading this year. This level indicates capitulation, a stage where new buyers often close in losses and are forced to exit or are emotionally removed.
Such signals Before the local saturation of the XRP price It led to clear recovery.
In April, NUPL fell to -0.13 and the XRP price rebounded.
In June, NUPL fell to -0.15 and XRP rebounded.
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This time, despite the deep reading of the capitulation, XRP still fell. The missing element comes from the data on the currencies spent.
The coins spent indicate that the capitulation peak has not yet been completed
The Coins Spent slide meter shows how many XRP coins are transferred by different age groups. When coins spent go up while the price goes down, this indicates real yield pressure. This metric does not only include short-term holders and can also show how long-term and medium-term XRP holders are moving.
A powerful example appeared earlier this month.
Between November 2 and November 5, the price dropped from $2.54 to $2.15. During the same period, the coins spent increased from 20.32 million to 104.85 million. This was an increase of about 416%, indicating a clear capitulation event. That ensured the formation of a local fund on November 5.
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The current structure, where currencies move as the correct price, represents a similar pattern, but on a much smaller scale.
Between November 17th and now, the price has decreased XRP From $2.27 to $1.96. Coins used increased from 45.87 million to 97.31 million, an increase of about 112%.
Since 112% is much lower than the previous high of 416%, the washing phase may not be complete. If the coins continue to rise towards the early levels of November, the price of XRP may see further declines before the final bottom is formed.
The incomplete washout explanation explains why the short-term surrender reading did not yet stimulate a recovery. And the reason for the possibility of waiting for a further drop in the price of XRP.
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XRP price levels indicate another bearish zone
XRP is near $1.95, which is an important support. Losing this level exposes the next zone near $1.57, which could highlight the eventual bottom for XRP If you keep giving up. The price is currently below the support, but to confirm the breakthrough, it needs a clear clear day below $1.95.
Another risk is rising on the chart. The 100-day EMA is trending toward the 200-day EMA. If the 100 moves below the 200, traders consider a bearish crossover, and that could be a bigger catalyst for a correction in the short term.
The exponential moving average gives more weight to recent prices, so it reacts faster than the simple moving average and helps confirm a short-term squeeze.
For the XRP price to show initial strength, it must first recover $2.08, followed by $2.26. This would reverse the downtrend in the near term.
