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The analyst Wolf Research highlights a rare moment of “maximum disagreement” in the cryptocurrency market, with the market divided between those who call the bear market at the bottom, and others who expect further declines. Bitcoin remains above $90,000, while major digital assets have fallen 20-50% in just three months.
This sharp split in sentiment has historically preceded significant price reversals, according to the company. The Wolf Research team has identified technical signals and emerging impulses that could determine the direction of Bitcoin at the end of the year.
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Market segmentation creates a historical environment
Wolf Research analysts Rob Ginsberg and Reed Harvey describe today’s cryptocurrency market as highly divided.
Half of the participants believe that the bear phase has just begun, while the rest believe that the bottom has already been reached.
This extreme division, which the company refers to In the name of “maximum disagreement”it has historically been preceded by major turning points.
in spite Bitcoin’s recent rise above $90,000broader markets remain under pressure. She fell Almost all major cryptocurrencies From 20% to 50% in the last three months, indicating that risk appetite remains low. Additionally, investment flows remain weak, limiting enthusiasm beyond daily price action.
Wolf Research positions itself as neutral, citing an upcoming opportunity for investors. The company expects that Bitcoin may close near $75,000even when current prices are trading much higher. This means an additional reduction of 23% if his scenario comes true.
Long-term support zones in the cryptocurrency market reinforce this analysis. These technical areas often mark previous session lows The main turning points, and serve as a guide to the current price behavior.
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Index fund flows indicate institutional hesitation
One of the main indicators of sentiment is the flows of crypto exchange-traded funds (ETFs). Bitcoin etf flows remain weakmaking it difficult for the asset to stay above $90,000.
Institutional investment, which was strong at the beginning of the year when Bitcoin spot ETFs were launched, has declined.
Recent data on ETF flows in November and December shows a significant outflow from the main Bitcoin fund products. These trends suggest that larger investors are either reducing their exposure or waiting for clearer signals before committing additional capital.
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Trading momentum is still lacking despite Bitcoin’s price recovery. A combination of slow ETF flows and a general decline in digital assets creates a difficult environment for a lasting recovery. Individual investors also remain divided, reflecting institutional uncertainty.
Technical indicators show emerging momentum
Momentum indicators are starting to improve despite general caution. Daily MACD readings indicate that a positive momentum may be building. However, analysts warn that there is uncertainty as to whether this recovery indicates a full recovery or just a brief respite.
Bitcoin is approaching two important technical levels. The first challenge is the 50-day moving average which is around $98,165. After that, a major psychological barrier was at $100,000 as a level that was difficult to recover and maintain.
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Wolfe Research sees the recent short-term rally as constructive. His analysis suggests that crypto assets, compared to stocks, have returned to previous support areas that saw turning points before. This adds more context to the technical background.
In general, these factors paint a complex environment. Strong technical resistance, weak institutional flows and declining assets compete with momentum improvisations and historical support areas. This combination shapes the evolving narrative of Bitcoin and digital assets.
Divergent viewpoints determine market expectations
On social media and among analysts, market opinion shows a sharp division. Some observers are very skeptical of Bitcoin’s current levels, They argue They argue that these values ​​are unsustainable, citing market mechanisms such as the issuance of stablecoins as evidence.
Others believe the correction is over, pointing to the same technical supports that Wolfe Research points to. This group sees current prices as opportunities ahead of an expected recovery. The controversy reflects uncertainty about factors such as macroeconomic trends, regulation and institutional adoption.
The next few weeks may reveal which view proves correct. If Bitcoin can break above and hold above $100,000, the bulls could gain the upper hand. However, a drop below $90,000 could push the sell back. Wolf’s “maximum divergence” signal may be resolved soon, which could spark the kind of reversal seen in previous sessions.
