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The price of Onyx Coin has fallen by about 2% in the last 24 hours and the coin is still trapped in a strong downward trend. Between January 6 and February 6, XCN lost nearly two-thirds of its value. After a temporary rebound from $0.0045 to $0.0059, the price of XCN started to weaken again. The data on the chain shows the acceleration of the exit of the holders, while only one area of ​​major support remains.
Now the question remains whether this is just a consolidation or the start of another round of strong selling.
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The collapse of the bearish flag pattern keeps the bearish pressure going
form The recent trend in Onyx Coin Inside a bearish flag pattern on the daily chart. A bear flag appears when a strong decline is followed by a weak and narrow rebound. It often indicates a trend continuation rather than a recovery. In the case of XCN, the decline from early January to early February formed a flagpole. The move towards $0.0059 formed the flag itself.
The price of XCN has recently seen a drop below the lower limit of this pattern.
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This breakdown indicates that buyers did not regain control after the bounce. Instead of building momentum, the selling pressure started again. When a bear flag fails, the next drop often reflects the same magnitude as the first move. With XCN already down about 65% from January levels (the high mast), this pattern also keeps downside risks high.
Inversion of this weakness by returning to the flag model, or confirming with a continuous decline, now depends on the behavior on the chain.
The exit of the guards accelerates as the whales show a fragile confidence
The chain’s data shows that long-term investors leave more quickly.
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This is reflected by the Net Holder Change Index which tracks whether wallets holding coins for more than 155 days accumulate or distribute coins within 30 days. When the indicator is negative, long-term holders sell.
On February 6, this value was around -34 million XCN. By February 9, it had grown to about -47.8 million XCN. This represents an increase in net sales of approximately 40% in just a few days. This shows that engaged holders accelerate the exit rate.
It shows that these are not short-term traders, but rather investors who have maintained their balance over previous cycles. When these begin to be distributed more heavily, it often reflects weak confidence in the future recovery.
The whale behavior adds an extra layer to the story, as large portfolios drastically reduced their holdings after February 6, dropping from about 52.55 billion XCN to about 48.60 billion, which was a big exit during the previous consolidation period. However, the shares have since risen slightly to around 48.78 billion.
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This slight return indicates a limited purchase on the pullbacks, as the whales have not completely left the market, but they are not rebuilt to strength. Its partial return appears to be tied to a remaining support level that could hold.
If this level fails, this fragile optimism may fade. To understand why the whales hesitate, one must look at the purchase areas of most of the holders.
The cost base and price levels of Onyxcoin show the last line of defense
The cost distribution charts reveal where the tokens are accumulated by the major holders, and these areas often serve as support if the price returns there. In orderOnyx coinMost of the large cost pools have already failed.
The support near $0.0053 and $0.0052 was broken, leaving only a major rally near $0.0050 where about 3.9 billion XCN are concentrated, making $0.0050 the last area of ​​strong demand.
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Holders who bought near this level are close to the breakout. As long as the price remains above this level, they can continue to hold their coins. If the price breaks this level, many will enter the loss zone and may flee due to lack of conviction and fear of an extended collapse.
The risks of cascading collapse present themselves here. When a large buy cost rally fails, neutral holders are in a losing position. The pace of sales is accelerating. Liquidity weakens. The fear is spreading. This often results in an additional steep drop. The price structure of Onyx Coin closely matches this data.
Now it is necessary xcn holds the coin At a higher price of $0.0050 to avoid further damage. A sustained breach below this level indicates the confirmation of the break of the bearish flag pattern and the confirmation of the continuation of the decline.
If that happens, the next major targets will be located near $0.0025 and $0.0017. On the other hand, recovery attempts remain difficult.
To regain stability in the short term, xcn needs to recover the $0.0057 level. Above this level, $0.0070 and $0.0081 are the major resistance areas. These were previous breakdown levels where selling increased. A complete invalidation of the bearish structure requires a move above $0.0099. Until then, the gains are likely to be only corrective in nature.
