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Bitcoin (BTC) may repeat the Q1 2025 cycle, which means a recovery may be on the way.
Bitcoin prices have stabilized at around $91,500 after a wave of significant selling, and cryptocurrency market analyst Axel Bitblaz believes that this decline largely reflects the pattern experienced by the market in early 2025, when Bitcoin prices peaked in January and subsequently fell by 17% even as the S&P 500 continued to hit all-time highs.
At that time, many people believed that Bitcoin’s upward momentum was over, but four weeks later the US index also reached its peak, so that the two markets entered a parallel downward channel, causing Bitcoin to fall by 25% and the index by 21% in six weeks.
Bitplzz believes that the current situation is obviously similar; Bitcoin has fallen by about 18% since peaking on October 6, and the S&P 500 has also begun to decline recently.
According to this scenario, Bitcoin’s declines often begin before obvious catalysts emerge, and stocks lag before catching the negative trend.
When investor weakness expands and stocks decline strongly, Bitcoin faces additional waves of short selling before embarking on a faster recovery than stocks until the market eventually falls and a new reversal occurs.
The analyst believes that the market is currently in the third or fourth stage of the sequence and that most of Bitcoin’s decline has been completed.
He also noted that if the market is waiting for a final bearish catalyst, it may have already begun, pointing to rising Japanese bond yields, increasing liquidity pressures on small U.S. banks and the market’s sensitivity to rumors related to politicians.
He believes the first two factors are slow-moving issues that could escalate without warning, adding that the market appears closer to the end of the damage than the beginning, although additional shocks are still possible.
On the other hand, analyst Axel Adler Jr. believes that despite limited improvement in short-term indicators, the overall structure of the Bitcoin market is still trending downward.
The Bullseye Structural Index (Quick Edition) has risen to -27.82 from a low of -41.89 on November 17, reflecting some easing of selling pressure as prices stabilize around $91,000, but still well below the -25% threshold, and showing continued weakness in buyer flows, derivatives pressure and ETF outflows.
The slow version of the index fell from -14.04 to -21.90, indicating that deep negative structural trends are becoming clearer.
The “Coinbase Premium” gap also fell to around $90, which is one of the lowest levels this year and reflects weak institutional demand.
The gap actively widens when institutions increase buying volume, but the current negative value means that individual transactions on Binance are leading the price action.
Analysts warned that the situation could exacerbate market volatility and intensify selling pressure before institutional buyers return.
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