Will Bitcoin repeat the brutal bear market scenario of 2014 in 2026?

While Bitcoin appears to be performing better in the current bear market than in previous cycles, analysts warn that a more severe decline could come later in 2026.

So far, Bitcoin’s price is down about 32% from its all-time peak of more than $126,000 in early October 2025.

On the other hand, the same phase of previous cycles has seen greater losses, with losses ranging from 43% to 66% in 2014, 2018 and 2022, reflecting the less severe severity of the decline so far.

But this relative advantage may not last.

The past few trading sessions have also seen a plateau before falling sharply towards the end.

CryptoCon analysts believe that paths may differ at first, but they tend to converge before reaching a final bottom.

In line with this pattern, the chart suggests a possible convergence point in September 2026, where the price could rise to $35,000, the area where the final phase of the decline in the previous sessions began.

CryptoCon confirms that the recent decline is the most significant considering this stage is a critical stage on the path to a bear market.

If historical scenarios repeat themselves, the bottom could be between $28,000 and $17,000 during October-November 2026.

This is also consistent with the Bitcoin mining reward halving cycle theory, which predicts that the bottom will be formed between November 2026 and January 2027.

Looking at recent price action, Bitcoin is trading at nearly $88,000 with a daily trading volume of over $49 billion.

According to “CoinGecko” data, the price fell by 1.5% in 24 hours and about 2.5% in a week.

On the other hand, signals vary among analysts.

Some of them expect a correction soon; analyst “Chiefy” writes:

If the four-year cycle holds true, Bitcoin will fall to $30,000 in February.

Others are focusing on longer-term indicators; analyst Kapoor Kshitiz noted that Binance’s “cost of reserves” rose to $62,000, a level that had acted as a bottom in previous bearish phases, while Bitcoin has yet to return to a testing phase since the ETF was approved.

As for the on-chain data, it shows that the proportion of Bitcoin held at a loss has begun to increase again, a phenomenon that has appeared in the early stages of previous bear markets.

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