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In its “Big Ideas 2026” report, ARK Invest predicts that the total market value of underlying digital currencies and smart contract networks will reach approximately $28 trillion by 2030, with a compound annual growth rate of approximately 61% by the end of this decade.
The company believes that Bitcoin may account for about 70% of this market, with the rest going mainly to smart contract networks such as Ethereum and Solana.
According to ARK estimates, Bitcoin’s market value may grow at a compound annual growth rate of about 63% by 2030, jumping from nearly $2 trillion to about $16 trillion.
As for the smart contract platform, ARK expects it to grow at an annual rate of 54% to approximately $6 trillion, with annual revenue expected to reach $192 billion, with an average decline of 0.75%, with two to three “Layer 1” platforms likely to dominate the largest portion of the market.
The report highlights the acceleration of institutional adoption, predicting that Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and public companies will hold approximately 12% of the supply by 2025, compared with 8.7% previously.
He also pointed out that ETF balances increased during the year and shareholdings of listed companies increased significantly.
On a performance level, ARK said that Bitcoin’s risk-adjusted returns outperformed most major currencies and indexes in 2025 based on a high Sharpe ratio compared to Ethereum, Solana and other components, noting that Bitcoin’s volatility has gradually declined as its role as a potential safe-haven asset has expanded.
In contrast, ARK believes that only a limited number of currencies will be able to maintain the characteristics of a monetary asset as a liquid store of value, while other networks will be evaluated primarily on utility and revenue.
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