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Solana’s price rebounded about 9% after falling to about $75 on February 23, and held most of those gains above $82.
This type of rebound usually attracts strong buyers because it indicates that the worst may be over. But that’s not what’s happening this time. Investors who typically step in during the recovery — long-term holders of the currency — are pulling out instead. This causes an unusual disconnect between price and conviction, which explains why Solana’s rebound is already under pressure.
Long-term buying is down about 62% despite the price increase
The clearest indication of weak conviction is seen through the HODLer net position change measure. This indicator measures the aggressiveness of long-term Solana holders, i.e. portfolios That keeps Solana For more than 155 days, based on the addition or reduction in a 30-day movement period.
On February 10, long-term holders of the coin added about 1.5 million soles. By February 24, this number had dropped drastically to only 564,317 soles. This represents a decrease of approximately 62.5% in the backlog in two weeks. This decline occurred even when the price of Solana stabilized and rebounded, making the change particularly significant.
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In simple terms, Solana’s strongest holders bought aggressively at the start of the month, but that confidence has eroded dramatically. When the accumulation decreases so sharply, it indicates that these investors are no longer convinced that the current rebound is the beginning of a sustainable recovery. in spite Price recovery SolThe position of currency holders is at its lowest monthly level.
Disclaimer: This does not mean that long-term holders are selling heavily, but it does show that their buying momentum has weakened significantly.
Note that this change is not limited to the oldest guardians. Medium-term Solana carriers, who held Solana for between one and three months, also reduced their exposure. Its share of the total supply fell from 19.52% on January 25th to around 14.08% on February 24th. This reflects a 27.9% decrease in its share of supply in just one month.
The importance of this is in its timing. This decrease continued even when the price of Solana rose in the last two days. Instead of buying into the recovery, many investors seem to be taking the opportunity to exit.
A 22 million sun supply wall is preventing recovery
Concerns about the lack of strong purchase growth when this situation is combined with the cost distribution data of Solana, which reveals where investors last bought their coins.
This data shows that there is a significant concentration of supply between $82.81 and $83.79. Accumulation of more than 22.16 million Solana In this range. This is one of the largest concentrations of supply that is currently at the highest price.
This range indicates a breakeven zone for many investors who previously bought and held Solana during the recent downturn. When the price returns to its entry level, these investors often sell to recoup losses or reduce risk in a weak market.
This helps explain why Solana’s recovery slowed near $82.91. The price makes a large group of investors who expect to sell at the breakeven.
At the same time, the accumulation of long-term holders has decreased by more than 60%, which means that the number of aggressive buyers has decreased to absorb this supply. This imbalance between buyers and sellers makes it difficult to continue the recovery.
The price path of Solana still indicates a decrease of 17%.
She adds The technical structure of Solana Another layer of risk for the current recovery. Before this rebound, Solana confirmed a bearish head and shoulders pattern and retreated to around $75.69.
The forecast shows that, even after the recent recovery, the objective of the boss of the model still indicates the area of ​​$ 68.71. The drop from the current price near $82.52 to $68.71 represents an additional decrease of about 17%. This means that the recent 9% bounce has not yet invalidated the overall bearish structure. Also, Solana tried but failed to break above the $82.91 level, mainly due to supply consolidation around this previously highlighted level.
For the rally to be stronger, Solana must first break and hold above the $82.91 level, the immediate resistance created by the supply rally. If this level is broken, the next resistance will be near $86.82. Crossing the $91.33 level will completely invalidate the bearish pattern and confirm the end of the downward trend.
The downside risk increases if the rejection continues at $82.91.
If Solana returns below $80.89, it can quickly retest the $74.96 level. Breaking this level opens the way to $68.71 and other lower levels, which still represent the active downside objective for the current pattern.
