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The price of Cardano continued to grow by about 12% in the last 24 hours, maintaining its level near $0.29 after recovering from recent lows. At first glance, this appears to be the beginning of a larger recovery. The price also tested a breakthrough that was expected to grow by about 38% towards $0.41, but so far this breakthrough has failed.
Explain that this rejection was not surprising. This happened despite heavy buying of whales worth about $340 million. There is a deeper story behind it. Several hidden forces, including inconsistent whale activity and liquidation risks, have quietly held back the surge.
The bullish divergence and breakout setup initially indicated 38% upside.
Recovery parameters began to take shape weeks ago. Between January 21 and February 24, fig Cardano Price The lower bottom. This means that the price has fallen to a new low lower than the previous low. Usually, this indicates weakness. But at the same time, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) formed a higher bottom.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is known as a momentum indicator that measures buying and selling strength. If the RSI rises while the price is falling, it creates a positive divergence, which is a signal of a trend reversal. This usually indicates that selling pressure is beginning to weaken, even as the price continues to decline.
This same pattern appeared in a reverse structure of the head and shoulders, which is a classic positive reversal pattern. When Cardano neared neck level on February 25, it looked ready to burst. The upward movement predicted by this model was about 38%.
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But instead of an obvious turn, Cardano shape Create a long upper tail and then dip back. This long tail shows that sellers entered aggressively and absorbed the buying pressure before the breakthrough was confirmed. At this point, the breakout failed.
A failed breach does not occur without notice. Immediately after the rejection on February 25, another dangerous signal appeared on the chart – a hidden negative divergence.
Between January 21 and February 25, the price of Cardano formed a lower high. This means that the last high was always weaker than the previous high. But during the same period, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) formed a much higher peak.
This is called hidden negative skew. It happens when the momentum grows faster than the price, but the price still fails to break the key resistance. This usually indicates that the bullish momentum is starting to run out of steam and the sellers are preparing to take back control.
Make the timing of this signal more important. The anomaly appeared when Caradano recorded a long upper tail on February 25 and failed to break the $0.31 level.
This confirmed that the hacker’s rejection was not just a random profit. It was a structural rejection supported by weak price strength under increasing momentum. Hidden negative deviations often lead to price corrections. It seems that this correction has already started now, with Caradano falling below its previous discovery level.
This created a precarious situation. The bullish discovery structure is still technically valid, but only if the correction remains limited. A deeper decline confirms that the sellers have fully regained control.
There were $340 million in purchases from the whales, but the bigger whales were quietly making bigger sales.
First look at the whale data as very bullish. Wallets holding between 100 million and 1 billion Cardanos increased their holdings from 2.33 billion Cardanos to 3.47 billion Cardanos. This means they bought 1.14 billion Cardanos, worth about $340 million. This is the buying activity that most traders have probably noticed.
But that was only part of the picture. Other groups of whales sold a lot at the same time. The biggest whales, who own more than 1 billion Cardanos, have reduced their holdings from 2.89 billion to 1.88 billion Cardanos. This equates to the sale of 1.01 billion Cardanos worth approximately $297 million.
The average whale, which holds between 10 million and 100 million Cardanos, sold 70 million Cardanos worth about $21 million. The smaller whales containing between 1 million and 10 million Cardanos sold 3.41 billion Cardanos worth about $1.0 billion.
The sale was about $1.32 billion. Compare that to the $340 million purchased. This creates a net gap in whale sales equal to about $980 million.
This explains the reason for failure, including the long top candle. The visible buying by the whales created optimism, but the larger hidden selling by the whales completely blew it away. This silent distribution process prevented hacking.
Derivatives traders have fallen into the trap – and now the risk of liquidation is increasing
Derivatives traders reacted exactly as expected. They saw a breakout forming, so they opened long buy trades, expecting the rally to continue.
Liquidation data on Binance alone shows $11.40 million of long positions being liquidated below current price levels, while short positions are liquidated is only $5.67 million. This means that optimistic translators are much more exposed to downside risk.
If it decreases Cardano PriceLong trades will be forced to close. This creates long buying pressure. A long buying squeeze occurs when falling prices force out optimistic traders, and their forced selling pushes the price higher. This is how failed breakouts accelerate into deeper corrections.
The price of Cardano now faces the risk of a decisive collapse towards $0.22
The ADA pricing structure is now at a critical point. For the upside breakout to remain valid, Cardano must recover to stay above $0.30. This will resume the path towards the $0.41 target.
But the downside risks are increasing. if Cardano refused Below $0.27, the pullback movement will strengthen. If it falls below $0.25, the bullish structure becomes invalid. This level is particularly dangerous because it corresponds to a large exposure to liquidation of long positions.
A break below $0.25 could trigger a cascading liquidation, likely pushing the price towards $0.22, which is the potential for the pattern to collapse completely.
Note that the failure of the Cardano hack at the time of writing is not just a technical failure. Rather, it is the result of a hidden whale sale approaching nearly a billion dollars. This imbalance continues to turn silently into a high potential of a crash entering a trap, and until the buying completely exceeds the selling, the recovery remains a wish.
