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The release of a video of White House press secretary Carolyn Leavitt abruptly ending a briefing seconds before a key betting threshold was reached has amplified concerns about insider trading in the forecast markets. This incident comes as thirty Democrats have introduced a bill to ban elected officials from making political bets.
You start the story as a joke, but no one laughs.
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Exit in 30 seconds
The controversy began on January 7 when Levitt finished his daily briefing At about 64 minutes and 30 secondsthat is, just before the 65-minute mark set by the Calci prediction market as a Betting threshold. At that time, the market showed a 98% probability that the briefing would exceed 65 minutes. Traders who bet against this scenario have received returns of up to 50x in seconds.
The clip, posted by influencer X Prediction Market Trader, has gone viral. Critics accused the White House of market manipulation. Democratic strategist Mike Nellis wrote that “we live in the dumbest timeline ever,” while others have called for prediction markets to be banned entirely.
Later, the owner of the original post added The tweet was meant as humor. PredictionMarketTrader wrote on January 10 that “Guys, this is clearly not insider trading – only $3k was traded in the market.” Kalci confirmed that the total volume did not exceed $3,400, with the largest position at $186, and called the allegations of insider trading “baseless.”
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The real catalyst: the bet to arrest Maduro
Although the briefing incident was a false alarm, it deepened already existing concerns about a more serious problem. A Polymarket account Betting that Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro will be ousted from power before the end of the month, he made $400,000 when he was arrested by US forces last week on drug-trafficking charges.
This bet prompted immediate legislative action. On January 10, Representative Ritchie Torres (D-NY) introduced the Financial Forecasting Markets Public Integrity Act of 2026, with the support of thirty Democrats, including former Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi.
“Imagine, for a moment, that a member of the Trump administration made a bet predicting an event like the removal of Nicolás Maduro,” Torres said. He added: “As an ally of the government and participant in the markets of expectations, that individual would have to face a perverse incentive to push policies that stretch their pockets. Taking advantage of the markets of expectations by government insiders should be completely prohibited.”
The bill prohibits federal elected officials, political appointees, executive branch employees and congressional staff from betting on government policies, government actions, or political outcomes when they have access to material nonpublic information.
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The Pelosi Paradox
Add a satirical dimension to the legislation Pelosi’s support for the bill. The former president has long faced criticism for her husband, Paul Pelosi’s, stock exchanges, which have consistently outperformed the market. Since taking office in 1987, Pelosi’s portfolio has returned an estimated 16,930%, compared to 2,300% for the Dow Jones Industrial Average over the same period.
This suspicion led to the emergence of a small parallel industry. Earn an account “Nancy Pelosi Trade Tracker” X has more than 1.3 million followers, with an investment of $ 1 billion via the fintech company Autopilot that automatically reflects the trades reported by her husband. There is also a fund traded with the ticker symbol “NANC”.
In July 2024, Paul Pelosi registered a high-profile case when he sold $500,000 worth of Visa stock – two months before the US Department of Justice filed an antitrust lawsuit against the company. A similar pattern appeared in 2022 when he sold Google shares a month before the company faces antitrust action.
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Pelosi’s office has always said she “owns no stock” and has “no prior knowledge or subsequent involvement” in her husband’s transactions. When asked about a ban on stock trading for members of Congress in 2021, he replied: “We are a free market economy. They should have the right to participate in it.”
Industry implications
Prediction markets such as Polymarket and Calci have grown in popularity since the 2024 election cycle, and often rely on cryptocurrencies for operations. The briefing incident, although small in scale, showed a structural flaw: markets that allow betting on events under the control of specific individuals allow inherent risks of manipulation.
It is not clear whether the Democratic bill will gain Republican support. Torres, communications director, explained that the representative “encourages all members of Congress to join.” Since Donald Trump Jr., the son of President Trump, had an investment of millions of dollars in BulleMarket, bipartisanism can be very far.
The prediction markets industry is currently facing its first serious regulatory challenge – sparked by a “satirical” tweet that everyone scrupulously believed because it was entirely possible.
