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Coinbase’s Bitcoin premium indicator has been negative for 21 straight days, the longest streak in the current cycle. Show data Coinglass The index has been below zero since early November, reflecting Bitcoin’s decline from nearly $120,000 to around $84,000.
This first negative indicates continued selling pressure in the US stock market, reflecting the sentiment of US institutional investors. Analysts suggest that the market may not find it The background It is clear that this trend will change.
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Understand the Coinbase Premium Indicator
The Coinbase Premium Index tracks the percentage difference between Bitcoin prices on Coinbase, a leading US exchange that trades in USD, and Binance, where a large number of traders mainly trade USDT. When the premium is positive, it highlights the increased demand from American investors and institutional buying. In contrast, a negative reading reflects selling pressures or lower demand from US versus global markets.
The current negative streak of 21 days is an unprecedented period. The indicator usually fluctuates between positive and negative. The Coinglass chart shows continuous red bars, indicating sustained negative readings during this session. This prolonged chapter of negativity has reversed Double the price of Bitcoin. Bitcoin topped $120,000 before falling to $84,500 by November 24, 2025.
Institutional meaning and constant pressure to sell
CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Joo stressed that US corporate sentiment remains subdued. CryptoQuant data shows Coinbase’s pre-hours at -0.06, highlighting continued caution from larger local players. The corresponding chart shows a recent strong pullback after a previous sideways move.
Meanwhile, the analyst Giannis declared what you do The latest decline is mainly due to Aggressive institutional selling On Coinbase instead of panic selling. He noted that global buyers were unable to absorb the selling pressure, which prevented Bitcoin from establishing a base. Historically, a reversal tends to occur when the spread returns to a neutral or positive level, indicating the risk of a continuation of the decline at the present time.
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Open interest data reinforces this dynamic, rising from less than 20,000 contracts at the end of October to around 70,000 in mid-November. An increase in open interest as prices fall generally indicates an increase in short positions and bearish market sentiment. These trends highlight concerns about continued selling pressure.
Weekend effects and mean-reversion patterns
Not all analysts see a negative spread as completely pessimistic. CryptoCondom Market Monitor notice Most weekends It drives mean reversion in the Coinbase spread. When US-based ETF activity and dealers stop trading over the weekend, the spread often moves toward zero, supporting some price stability or small gains.
This recurring pattern has emerged over the weekend in recent weeks, with shaded areas on the charts indicating increased spreads and higher prices. It highlights the contrast between “High Weekend” The day of the week dips affect the trading flows on the short term volatility of Bitcoin. However, the general trend of the weekday remains negative, as institutional activity increases selling pressure.
These effects of the weekend highlight the influence of American institutions on the structure of Bitcoin. When they stop, global demand offers temporary relief. But when institutions return to the market in the week, the sale resumes, which often sweeps global buyers and continues the downward trend.
Market forecasts and fund formation
Coinbase’s continued negative spread indicates that Bitcoin has yet to form a sustainable base. Historically, a trend reversal tends to occur after the spread is recovered, indicating a change in institutional behavior. Until that happens, rebounds may be small or decline rapidly due to renewed sales from the United States.
Market participants face a difficult scenario. Current conditions are similar Pass stages of surrenderbut the persistent negative spread indicates that the sell-off is not over. Traders must decide whether these prices indicate long-term accumulation or just pauses in a long-term trend.
A neutral or positive change in Coinbase’s spread would signal a turning point, signaling the end of institutional selling and the return of demand. Until then, caution is likely to prevail in Bitcoin trading strategies.
