What Bitcoin Needs to Return to the $100,000-$120,000 Area, Copper Reveals

British digital conservative Cooper believes Bitcoin’s months-long decline is approaching its final phase, with market dynamics now resembling “late decay behavior,” the phase that historically precedes major reversals.

Cooper, the London-based institutional cryptocurrency portfolio founded by former British Chancellor of the Exchequer Philip Hammond, said in its weekly note. Opening Bell On Wednesday, the mechanisms driving Bitcoin’s decline changed.

According to the company, the first part of the current trend was dominated by a high sensitivity to ETF flows, as redemptions pushed prices ever lower. But this relationship has now ended.

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The impact of ETFs has collapsed – key points of the article in the late trend

Cooper analysts say a flexibility of 30 days between ETF flows The yields fell to one of the lowest levels of the year, which is a clear sign that the market has already absorbed a significant sell-off.

“It does not confirm that it is a reflection,” Cooper wrote “But it confirms that the live, stream-based part of the movement is behind us.”

Cooper grouped Bitcoin ETF holdings into simple “bars,” which are structural areas that show where Bitcoin prices tend to stabilize based on the amount of Bitcoin ETF shares. They indicated that these tapes were surprisingly consistent:

• $40,000–$60,000: Based on low ETF ownership
• $70,000–$90,000: Average accumulation
• $100,000–$120,000: Upper structural plan

These are not random groups, says Cooper. They act as price levels in the form of moving degrees Bitcoin The biggest is the demand for ETFs.

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Analyst Cooper said “As ETFs have accumulated more Bitcoin, Bitcoin has continued to move to higher price zones, like climbing a flight of stairs.”

Cooper’s analysis shows that when ETFs first push Bitcoin into a new property bar, the following 10 days historically see gains between 10-13%. The market adjusts to the new level of institutional ownership during this period. However, once ETF flows stabilize within that bar, future returns tend to stabilize, meaning prices stop moving sharply and the market enters a more sideways phase.

The market absorbs ETF sales

Bitcoin is currently trading around $86,000, but Cooper says BTC ETF funds are largely concentrated at the top of its historical range, at the top of the property bar, which is historically associated with the $100,000-$120,000 price zone.

According to Cooper, it’s not just the tape itself that matters, but how Bitcoin behaves on it.

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The analysts said: “The future behavior in these categories is what matters for the forecast. When the ETF first enters a new property category, the next 10 days historically produce a strong upward trend, on average between 10-13%. Once the category becomes fully occupied, the future returns flatten to about 1-2%. This is the only category in the entire data set to have a return profile negative”.

Cooper said that this explains why Bitcoin sometimes rises even in the days of negative flows of the ETF, as the gains are absorbed, but without sustained flows the market cannot build a new uptrend. According to analysts, the market is now in the final stage of the downward trend. A return to the $100K-$120K range depends on ETF flows changing dramatically, either bouncing to a lower category for a short-term rally, or pushing higher with a strong build-up to start a real breakout.

The analysts added: “Until the ETFs return to a lower category or break through a higher category with sustained inflows, the market will probably move sideways with a slight bias to the downside. We are in the late phase of a bearish phase, but not yet at the beginning of a new bullish phase.”

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Coinbase reports positive developments in Europe

Short-term signals remain mixed, while the larger European institutional arena shows a different story.

said Keith Gross, the new CEO of Coinbase In the UK, the region is witnessing a structural shift in how regulated institutions interact with digital assets. One example: the Czech Central Bank’s recent decision to test a small portfolio of controlled digital assets, one of the first pilots regulated by an EU central bank.

Gross said such steps are early but significant.

“Market conditions are changing as institutions across Europe adopt a more structured and regulatory approach to digital assets,” He said. “We see a clearer framework, a stronger infrastructure, and the first examples of central banks doing monitoring pilots … including the recent test of the Czech Central Bank.”

He added that the public might not feel the change yet – “Don’t pay for groceries with Bitcoin in the UK” – But Europe is quietly building the foundation for digital assets to become a significant part of the financial infrastructure and payments of the future.

“This makes the need for secure infrastructure, compliance and transparency more important than ever,” Gross said.