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The price of Solana has fallen sharply in recent weeks, losing almost 40% in a month and more than 54% from its peak in January. The trend still seems weak, and most traders continue to bet on more profitable odds. However, some whales do the opposite. They will open aggressive buying positions even when the market continues to decline.
This creates a clear division. The trend is still up, but some signals indicate that early reversal conditions may be forming. The main question now is simple. What exactly do these whales see?
Long bets from the whales also appear when Solana tests the critical reversal conditions
Solana’s broader trend remains Bearish, but the first signs of a reversal are starting to appear. The first signal comes from the relationship between price and the Relative Strength Index (RSI). The RSI is a momentum indicator that measures whether selling pressure is improving or weakening.
Since November 21, the price of Solana has continued to make new lows. However, the RSI is starting to form at a higher low. This creates bullish diversification, which often indicates that sellers are losing steam. However, this reversal signal is not yet confirmed. To confirm, two conditions must be met.
First, the next day Solana candle would form above $77, which is the current low of the last candle. If the next candle closes above this level, it will confirm that sellers have failed to push the SOL price.
Second, the RSI must be above 30, which is the lowest level it had on November 21. If the RSI falls below 30, it will invalidate the bullish divergence and confirm continued weakness. As long as the price of $77 RSI remains above 30 (the second confirmation is more important), the initial reversal structure remains the same.
This explains why some whales settle first.
A whale recently deposited $2 million in USDC and opened a lead buy position worth 20x To SolanaAlthough the downward trend continues.
However, the broader derivatives market still disagrees with this positive view. Open interest increased from $1.93 billion to $1.98 billion, an increase of 2.6%. Meanwhile, funding rates fell sharply from -0.005% to -0.032%, a 540% move deeper into negative territory.
This shows that the market is betting heavily on the most negative possibilities. So why are seasoned bearers piling in while most traders remain bearish? There must be something more than just establishing the uncertain opposite.
The accumulation of long-term carriers and institutional activity indicates a hidden force
Long-term pregnant behavior provides important clues. Hodler’s net position change, which tracks whether long-term investors are buying or selling funds, indicates a sharp increase in accumulation. Long-term holders increased their net buying by 786,539 points longer to 972,417 in one day, an increase of 23.6%.
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This suggests that experienced investors accumulate during a period of weakness. Another signal comes from the Money Flow (CMF) indicator. CMF measures whether significant capital is flowing into or out of an asset using price and volume.
Even as the price of Solana remains weak, CMF begins to rise. This indicates that money is slowly starting to flow to Solana. However, to influence large capital Positive on the SOL priceFirst it must break the rising trend line and then the zero line.
This accumulation becomes even more significant when combined with the weekly VWAP, or volume weighted average price. VWAP reflects the average price weighted by volume and is widely used as an indicator to determine the position of institutions. Solana temporarily regained this level, with a 10% increase. The same redemptions also happened at the beginning of January, and the price rose by about 20%. Currently, the VWAP line is above $79, which is closer to the current trading price.
The VWAP recovery was first driven by the CMF, advancing above the zero line. The current pattern suggests that institutional accumulation may begin again. This belief can also explain the long-standing position of the whale. But optimism does not come without risks.
Short-term rights holders and key price levels now determine Solana’s next big move
Short-term holders now represent the biggest risk to the recovery. This can be seen in the HODL wave, which measures how much investors keep their coins in aggregate supply over time intervals.
The group of holders from 1 week to 1 month increased their supply share from 5.10% to 7.18%, an increase of 40%. These short-term holders are more likely to sell quickly during volatility. This creates resistance during recovery attempts.
price Solana Now at a crucial decision point. If Solana stays above $77 and the RSI stays above 30 (from before), the bullish divergence remains valid. This may allow a recovery towards $91, which represents a potential upside of 15%.
However, if the $77 indicator breaks and the RSI falls below 30, the bullish setup fails to qualify. In this case, Solana can fall towards $68 before and maybe $54, which represents a decrease of more than 30% compared to the current levels.
This is why the current level is so important. The broader market is still betting against Solana’s price, as evidenced by high short positions and severely negative financing rates. But whalers and long-range hunters are soon preparing for a different outcome. The next candles and the stability of the RSI 30 – will determine who is right.
