Physical Address
304 North Cardinal St.
Dorchester Center, MA 02124
Gold (XAU/USD) gained momentum at the beginning of the week as expectations of a Federal Reserve cut. Then the markets slowed down because of the Thanksgiving holiday in the United States, but the metal rose by more than 2% on the week.
With the Fed’s quiet period beginning on Saturday, investors will now turn their focus to incoming US data.
Sponsored
Sponsored
Gold rises as dovish voices grow at the Fed
Gold started the week strong as traders reassess the possibility of a 25 basis point cut in December.
Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Meiran said late last week that… It could support a cut of 25 basis points If his vote becomes decisive. His latest stance contrasts with his previous preference for a 50 basis point cut in previous meetings.
New York Fed President John Williams also signaled openness to easing monetary policy. Monetary policy remains “somewhat restrictive,” he said, adding that there is room for another adjustment soon.
Gold jumped By more than 1.5% on Monday. It rose again on Tuesday before shutting down slowly. Private sector employers lost an average of 13,500 jobs each week through Nov. 8, ADP data showed.
demonstrated New US data On Wednesday, 216,000 claims were registered To get unemployment benefits For the week ending November 22, down 6,000 from the previous period.
Sponsored
Sponsored
Durable goods orders rose 0.5% in September, beating expectations of 0.3%. These numbers did not affect the expectations of the Fed, and gold continued to rise to more than 4,100 before the holidays.
Trading was thin on Friday, but gold remained near the upper end of its weekly range.
Gold investors turn to US data
Fed officials could not comment again until the December 9-10 meeting. As a result, markets rely on US data to assess the likelihood of a cut.
According to the CME FedWatch tool, traders are now assigning about an 85% probability of a cut of 25 basis points in December.
Sponsored
Sponsored
The US calendar begins with the ISM Manufacturing Activity Index on Monday. A stronger employment index – especially if the reading is above 50 – may I support the US dollarAnd click on XAU/USD.
The ISM Services index will follow on Wednesday. A drop below 50 would register deflation and could put pressure on the US dollar, providing support for gold.
Investors are also looking at Thursday’s job cuts report for Challenger. Layoffs reached 153,074 in October, a 22-year high. A sharp decline will ease concerns in the labor market and may support the US dollar.
Sponsored
Sponsored
BEA releases personal consumer price index data on Friday. However, this report covers the month of September due to previous accumulation and is unlikely to impact the markets.
Technical analysis of gold
Short-term technical sentiment remains constructive, although momentum has yet to pick up.
On the daily chart, gold is trading fluidly above the 20-day simple moving average and 23.6% of Fibonacci retracement August-October high of $4,125. The RSI is holding close to 60 and is moving sideways.
Support is at $4,125 before $4,085 (20-day SMA), $4,030 (50-day SMA), and $3,970 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement). On the downside, resistance is located at $4,245, followed by $4,300 and $4,380.
