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Tom Lee’s Bitmain stock has struggled to recover despite its deep correlation to Ethereum. Bitmain’s stock price has continued to trade almost flat in recent days and is down sharply, 30% over the last month, closely mirroring Ethereum’s decline. This weakness is evident even as the company continues to increase its exposure to Ethereum until 2026.
I usually assume that such a strong accumulation will support price strength. But BMNR’s share price still shows signs of structural weakness. This raises an uncomfortable question. Why does the stock not respond positively to its growing position in Ethereum?
BitMine’s Ethereum Buying Continues, But Two Metrics Show Institutions Are Still Hesitating
Bitmain has increased dramatically of its Ethereum holdings in 2026, adding 158,279 ETH to the company’s treasury as of February 22. The most recent additions were recorded between February 17 and February 22, when more than 51,000 ETH were added.
This continued accumulation confirms the company’s long-term belief in Ethereum. However, the technical structure of the stock reflects a different story.
Bitmain remains stuck Within a bear flag pattern, it is formed when a temporary rebound occurs in a broader downward trend. These patterns often resolve with further pullbacks if strong buying does not return. Currently, the expected risk level is close to 60%, which is the high pole.
Meanwhile, Bitmain stock continues to trade below its monthly volume-weighted average price (VWAP), which currently sits near $20.38.
VWAP is the average price weighted in volume and is widely used as an indicator of the position of institutions. Trading below VWAP indicates that institutions are still holding defensive positions and have not returned as buyers.
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This hesitation is also seen in the Chaikin Liquidity Flow (CMF) indicator. The CMF indicator measures whether large investors are buying or selling, combining price and trading volume.
Although the CMF indicator has been raised against a downtrend since the end of November, which indicates that the selling pressure has slowed down, it is still below zero. This means that institutional selling has decreased, but aggressive buying has not yet begun.
Together, the VWAP and CMF indicators show that even… Ethereum piled high by Bitmain, institutional investors remain cautious.
The historical significance of the meeting above the VWAP line makes it clear: when it happened before December, the price of Bitmain shares increased by almost 39% to reach a local peak.
If institutions aren’t buying yet, what’s to stop the stock from falling further?
Buying by retail investors and an upward divergence provides temporary support
Retail investors seem to be providing the main support at the moment.
The Overall Trading Volume (OBV) indicator, which tracks total buying and selling pressure, shows an increase even during Bitmain’s price decline between February 9th and February 20th.
Momentum indicators show a similar pattern. The Relative Strength Index (RSI), which measures momentum, forms a bullish divergence from November 21, 2025 to February 12, 2026.
While the price of Bitmain recorded lower lows, the RSI indicator made higher lows. This pattern often indicates weak selling pressure.
This divergence caused a rebound of about 16% earlier, but the recovery faltered and did not reverse the broader trend. This failure likely reflects Bitmain’s heavy reliance on Ethereum, as its massive eth hoard makes the stock highly sensitive to Ethereum’s continued weakness.
This shows that the retail buying alone was not strong enough to completely change the direction of the market. The next move now depends entirely on whether key price levels will be breached or not.
Critical levels of the BitMine stock price to watch now
Find it now Bitmain stock It is itself at a critical technical crossroads.
The first important resistance level is $21.76. Passing this level pushes the stock above the volume weighted average price (VWAP) and indicates improved strength. This suggests that institutional buyers are beginning to return.
However, the overall bearish structure remains active unless Bitmain breaks the $30.52 level, which will likely weaken the bear flag pattern. On the other hand, the most important support level is $18.60.
If Bitmain falls below this level, the bearish structure will be greatly strengthened. A drop below $18.60, with the RSI declining, will further weaken the current bullish divergence structure forming a new local low. Also, confirm the breakout of the bear flag pattern.
This could open the way towards $15.08, with additional downside risks to $11.25 if selling accelerates.
Bitmain’s Ethereum accumulation shows long-term conviction. However, until institutional buyers return and break key resistance levels, the stock remains vulnerable to further decline.
