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Bitcoin may be approaching a crucial December as liquidity conditions tighten and network indicators change. BitMine President Tom Lee said the market has been “paralyzed” by the October 10 liquidation shock, but argues that the current setup supports a big move before the end of the year.
Recent trends on the chain and collateral data on the exchanges indicate a similar pressure developing below the surface.
Liquidity damages continue to define the market
He told me only, CND That October event severely hurt market maker accounts.
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He described these companies as the “central banks” of cryptocurrencies, responsible for depth, margin and inventory. When their financial accounts are replenished, Liquidity has been declining for weeks.
This corresponds to the performance of the market since the beginning of October. Bitcoin has fallen almost 30% From its peak of $126,000.
meanwhile, November delivered one of the worst monthly performances Both the price and flows of ETFs for years.
Market makers withdrew venture capital after a wave of liquidations wiped out about $19 billion in leveraged positions.
The depth of the order book fell sharply in the major exchanges, creating air pockets that increased the bearish movements. In these conditions, Bitcoin and Ethereum tend to react earlier to macro pressures than stocks.
Despite this damage, Lee expects a strong rebound in December, citing potential A lenient change from the Federal Reserve.
“Bitcoin makes its best moves in 10 days every year, and I think some of those days will happen before the end of the year,” said Tom Lee.
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The indicators on the chain show that the sellers are losing control
The CVD (cumulative change in volume) of the recipient of the 90-day Bitcoin futures contract has changed from continuous selling dominance to a neutral position. The index tracks aggressive market orders on spot exchanges.
The red bars dominated from the beginning of September until the middle of November, showing the selling pressure sustained by traders.
The recent move back to rest indicates a break in this pattern. It suggests that the aggressive phase of the sale has been exhausted.
However, they are It does not show a strong buying dominance. Instead, the market entered a balanced phase typical of late cycle bear markets.
The price remains well below October levels, but the absence of selling pressure from sustained traders indicates improved stability.
The change is in line with the broader readjustment of leverage seen in the futures markets, where funding rates have approached zero.
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Lending trends indicate strong hands, but fragile leverage
CryptoQuant data shows that Nexo users prefer to borrow against Bitcoin instead of selling. BTC represents between 53% and 57% of all collateral on the platform. This range has been maintained for several months despite the decline.
This behavior reduces immediate sales pressure. It also confirms that long-term holders will continue to treat Bitcoin as their main source of liquidity.
However, it adds another layer of vulnerability. If Bitcoin falls further, the collateralized positions face the risk of liquidation.
With book pools in thin demand, any forced sales could result in significant volatility. This dynamic reflects the fragility of late bears relative to the strength of early bulls.
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A market caught between exhaustion and low liquidity
The current market structure reflects a transition rather than a clear reversal. ETF flows, liquidity hits and general uncertainty continue to weigh on prices.
However, the sale in the chain is cooled, and the owners of the structure are still defending positions.
The result is an environment in which small stimuli can produce large movements.
A dovish U-turn from the Fed will hit thin orders and accelerate the recovery, a beincrypto report said. Another major economic shock will likely lead to renewed leverage reduction.
Lee’s vision aligns with this setting. The market has stopped bleeding, but is still fragile. Bitcoin has a history of delivering double-digit moves in compressed periods, especially after aggressive liquidations.
In December, liquidity conditions and data on the chain suggest that the next big move is just around the corner.
The trend will depend on macro signals and ETF flows rather than sentiment alone.
