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The price of Bitcoin has fallen sharply this month. Since the beginning of November, it has fallen by almost 15%, turning one of the strongest assets this year into one of the weakest in the current volatility.
The decline split the market into two camps again. Some believe that this is the beginning of a deeper correction. Others believe that the cycle is still developing, and this is just a big pullback. The next move depends on a level. If Bitcoin recovers to this level, the rebound setting is activated. If it fails here, the disadvantages can expand rapidly.
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The importance of Bitcoin is to mitigate the downside, but a level must be achieved
Early signs show that sellers may be losing ground.
The RSI entered oversold territory this week and has since reversed. This usually shows that selling pressure has subsided.
A longer model supports this view. Between April 30 and November 14, the price of Bitcoin formed a higher bottom, which means that the general trend has not been completely broken. However, during the same period, the RSI formed a lower bottom. This is a hidden bullish divergence, a signal that usually appears when a strong trend tries to pick up after a major correction.
To activate the RSI signal, the price of Bitcoin must cross above $100,300 (a major support from the end of April), which can now act as psychological resistance.
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The display data points to the same area on the chart. It shows the realized UTXO price distribution Big band of Bitcoin in the long run It was generated near the area of ​​$100,900.
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When you form a pool like this, it often becomes an important decision point because a large part of the offer is in the same cost base. This cost base rally is located near the resistance level highlighted on the RSI chart.
The momentum narrative is only in play if the price of Bitcoin closes above that zone. Without that closure, the variance and over-readings remain uncertain.
The lowest level in a year for the NUPL index keeps the fund issue alive
The second argument for a reversal comes from the net unrealized gain/loss measure.
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NUPL has now fallen to 0.40, its lowest reading in a year. This means that the market is back to bringing very small unrealized profits, similar to early cycle periods.
The last time NUPL hit a similar low was in April. Since then, Bitcoin has increased almost 46% in less than two months. While this does not guarantee a repeat of the situation, it shows that the market enters a familiar pressure zone where rebounds are formed if the price stabilizes.
But again, this indicator also depends on the price of regaining the same resistance bar. Without this, the theory of the bottom of Bitcoin remains Open but inactive.
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Bitcoin price is trading in a down channel – with two critical levels on the horizon
Bitcoin remains in a descending channel, maintaining a short-term trend.
The first step to getting out of this is simple: recover $100,300. A daily close above $101,600 reinforces the move and turns old support into support.
If that happens, the next important level is near $106,300. A break above that will take Bitcoin out of the descending channel. This will turn the trend from bearish to neutral and may turn bullish if the momentum improves.
The danger of collapsing lies below. The lower channel bar has only clean touches, making it structurally weak. If you lose Bitcoin $93,900 – $92,800The model opens up deeper levels, and the “extended cycle” view becomes much more difficult to defend.
Now, everything is based on a single decision point. Above $100,300, the price of Bitcoin stabilizes. And below $93,900, the slippage could be much worse.
