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XRP was one of the weakest tokens this week. The price of XRP has fallen by about 6% in the last seven days, putting pressure on short-term sentiment.
However, the latest pullback may not be the end of the move. Existing data and data on the chain suggest that XRP is in a decisive moment based on whether it can replicate the environment last seen four months ago.
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The price chart shows a familiar setup
Looks like XRP is in shape A reversal head and shoulders structure on the daily chart. This pattern often signals a trend reversal, but only if key levels are restored. Currently, the neck of the structure is close to $2.52, about 28% higher than the current prices.
To be able to open this higher trajectory, XRP first needs to regain the 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which is the sky blue line. The EMA gives more weight to recent prices because it reacts more quickly to trend changes than the simple moving average. Historically, this level has been a key decision point for XRP. In September, a retracement of the 100-day EMA led to a rally of nearly 12%. Earlier in the same month, a similar recovery led to a 16% rally.
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So far, XRP has failed to hold above the short EMA (20-day and 50-day) and was rejected again near the 100-day EMA on January 14. However, the last downgrade showed a long lower wick, which showed that buyers quickly absorbed the downward pressure. This response indicates the presence of demand, keeping the bullish structure alive for the time being, but only if the pure rate barrier is eventually restored.
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Catchers and carriers get starting positions, but buying spots alone may not be enough
The series data shows the initial implantation of the sub. Token balances containing 10 million to 100 million XRP tokens increased from approximately 11.14 billion to 11.17 billion tokens, worth approximately $60 million at current prices.
Smaller whales holding between one and ten million XRP were more active. Their balances increased from about 3.54 billion to 3.59 billion XRP, which is about $100 million. These additions began around January 14, before the accumulation of wider carriers. While some tokens were unloaded on January 15th as the XRP price correction began, net positions from January 14th remained positive.
The keepers followed the whales. Since January 16, the change in the net long positions of the holders has become decidedly positive. This metric tracks portfolios that Hold XRP For a period of about 155 days or more, making it a useful alternative for conviction holders rather than short-term traders.
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On January 16, this formation held approximately 223,201,195 XRP. As of January 18, the company has raised approximately 234,886,841 XRP. This represents an increase of approximately 11.69 million XRP, representing a 5.2% increase in stakes in just two days.
Timing is important. Whales began positioning earlier, during the initial patch, while long-term carriers intervened after January 16. This gradual accumulation indicates a deliberate purchase rather than an emotional search.
Derivatives skew determines the trigger, while XRP price levels determine the outcome
The positioning of derivatives adds an essential touch. in Perpetual XRP Marketsshort leverage approaching liquidation is close to $520 million, while long leverage is close to $22 million. This means that the position is 95% inclined towards short selling.
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This imbalance creates fuel. A moderate upward move can put pressure on the short, quickly strengthening the price if key levels are broken.
The levels are clear. XRP should be closed Above $2.24 to confirm strength and restore the 100-day EMA line. Then it can push to the $2.48-2.52 area to activate the pattern. If that happens, the 33% upside forecast will return to reality.
On the downside, a loss of $1.84 weakens the setup, while a drop below $1.77 invalidates it completely. At the moment, XRP is not distributed. But if he can repeat the move of September, the rally could finally start to move.
