Physical Address
304 North Cardinal St.
Dorchester Center, MA 02124
The price of Bitcoin recorded a decline of more than 10% from its highs in late January, briefly falling below $81,000 before stabilizing above $82,300. In just 24 hours, the market saw more than $1.7 billion in liquidations, with Bitcoin alone accounting for nearly $800 million in long-term liquidations. The price of BTC is still more than 6%, every day.
Most traders blame leverage. But the data show that derivatives did not start the decline, they only accelerated it. The actual collapse started earlier, near an important area on the chain and structurally.
Huge trading volume, broken support and $84,600 trap
The first notice came from the daily paper. Bitcoin recorded its biggest red volume candle since early December. A red volume candle means there is intense selling pressure in which sellers outnumber buyers.
Sponsored
Sponsored
The last time the volume reached this level, in early December, Bitcoin has fallen At a rate of about 9%.
At that time, buyers intervened immediately. This time, they didn’t. Instead, the BTC price fell below $84,600, a key support level, and continued to decline towards $81,000.
At the same time, Bitcoin entered one of its most important territories on the chain.
Here the importance of the Realized Price Distribution of Undisbursed Transaction Outputs (URPD) is highlighted. urpd shows where the last supply of Bitcoin was purchased. Large clumps indicate levels where several coins were last moved, and often act as major support or resistance.
According to the chart, two of the largest blocks are located at:
- $84,569 (3.11% of bid)
- $83,307 (2.61% of bid)
Together they form one of the densest property areas of the cycle.
Sponsored
Sponsored
by the time Bitcoin has fallen Below $84,600, you have entered this cluster area. This is where the problems started as the first cluster was threatened.
GlassNode data shows that long-term holders, coins that may have been held for several months to a year, are starting to sell at this level. On January 29, its 30-day net position fell to -144,684 btc, the largest monthly outflow during that period.
Long-term holders sold close to $84,600, which is adjacent to the largest urpd cluster. When heavy selling meets a large cost zone, support is broken. Once this barrier failed, a large part of the supply moved to a loss. Only after this collapse, the pressure of the filter explodes.
Why did chain data seem healthy when the danger was growing?
This drop in BTC price surprised many traders because the superficial indicators seemed stable.
net position of Huddlers remains positive, showing an addition of about + 16 358 BTC more than 30 days.
Sponsored
Sponsored
Sign up for more insights into tokens like this with Harsh Notaria’s crypto email newsletter. From here.
Whale stocks also increased. Large portfolios did not sell much. On paper, there was an assembly process.
But these indices combine different groups of investors.
Medium-term holders and larger cards continued to buy. Long-term holders are quietly distributing amounts. When experienced traders start selling near key cost bands, this indicates a belief-based risk, even if the balances generally appear strong.
That is why most investors ignored the warning. BeInCrypto analysts pointed out this risk a week ago. The market looked healthy, and below the surface the strongest support levels were sold.
When this selling weakened the $84,600 area, leveraged positions became vulnerable. As the price continues to fall, long positions begin to liquidate. CoinGlass data shows that nearly $800 million of long Bitcoin positions were liquidated in 24 hours.
Sponsored
Sponsored
Derivatives do not create vulnerability, they interact with it.
Broken structure, downside risks, and key levels for Bitcoin price
The technical structure is now deteriorated. Bitcoin broke the neck of the head and shoulders pattern on the daily chart. This is a bearish reversal pattern that often appears before extended corrections.
Based on this model, a break indicates another 12% downside from the neck, putting the risk close to the $75,000 area if the selling continues. The $81,000 level is now a critical support.
If Bitcoin loses this level again, the momentum may increase on the downside. If you keep it, stability can be possible.
The recovery process depends on the recovery of the key levels on the chain and the card. The first important price range for BTC is located near $83,300, corresponding to the second largest URPD range. A move above this level will show that buyers are defending areas of previous ownership.
The key level remains $84,600. This is where long-term holders sell. There is the largest URPD collection. Until Bitcoin closes decisively above $84,600, recovery attempts remain fragile.
