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For the first time in history, Bitcoin recorded a red annual candle one year after the mining reward fork, indicating that the four-year cycle model no longer works in the traditional way, especially in the absence of a “supply shock” that usually drives prices significantly higher after a fork.
The basis of the four-party cycle theory is that the year after the split is typically the most explosive year for growth, such as the 2013, 2017 and 2021 cycles, as reduced supply supports rising prices in the subsequent 12 to 18 months.
On the other hand, however, the data shows a clear downward trend in returns. Each subsequent rising wave becomes less powerful than the previous one.
Observers believe that the entry of index funds (ETFs) and the increase in institutional capital have made Bitcoin a macro asset closer to traditional markets, with less volatility and a decline in so-called high-growth speculative bets.
Furthermore, since early 2024, Bitcoin prices have been expected to break out of this cycle in 2025, as Bitcoin prices hit a new all-time peak in March 2024, about a month before the split.
In previous cycles, all-time highs typically occurred 12 to 18 months after a split.
The launch of spot ETFs is believed to be the main reason for the introduction of this cycle, as it pushed a large portion of expected future liquidity to 2024, making 2025 less able to provide the new institutional boost that many expected.
The numbers also suggest a break from the pattern Bitcoin had often followed before, with one year down and three years up.
According to this proposition, 2025 is the first year since 2014 that Bitcoin has not completed the green candle trilogy.
Additionally, 2025 is said to be the first time Bitcoin ends a year below 10%, reinforcing the idea of declining volatility and expanding market maturity.
From an expectation perspective, this shift does not necessarily mean the end of upside opportunities, but it suggests that Bitcoin may operate in the future according to a logic closer to the economic cycle and global liquidity, rather than relying entirely on the rhythm of mining reward splits and four-year cycles.
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