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In November 2025, the Tether Dominance Index (USDT.D) – the ratio of USDT’s market capitalization relative to the total cryptocurrency market capitalization – officially exceeded 6%. It also broke a downtrend line that has been intact since 2022.
Analysts expressed concern that USDT.D broke a long-term resistance level. This move often signals the start of a major correction or even an extended bear market for the entire cryptocurrency market.
How important is the rise of USDT.D in the context of the November market?
TradingView data shows that USDT.D reached 6.1% on November 18 before falling to 5.9%.
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At the beginning of the month, this percentage was less than 5%. This growth reflects increased caution among investors. Many have rotated capital into the strongest liquid fixed coins rather than deploying funds to buy deeply discounted altcoins.
Historical data indicates a strong inverse correlation between USDT.D and the overall market. Therefore, a break of USDT.D above a nearly four-year trend line could indicate deeper declines for the entire market in the future.
Many analysts expect it USDT.D heading towards 8% At the end of the year, what is implicitly assumed is that A bear market could form in November. These expectations are valid because The fear continues to grow and shows no signs of abating.
In addition, the famous analyst Milk Road highlights a remarkable change in the stablecoin market. DefiLlama data indicates that the total market capitalization of stablecoins fell from $309 billion at the end of October to $303.5 billion in November.
The stablecoin market has seen a drop of about $5.5 billion in less than a month. This move represents the first significant decrease since 2022 bear market. DeFiLlama’s chart shows that after four years of continuous growth, the curve has begun to flatten and the trend is upward.
The combination of the decline in the market capitalization of stablecoins and the rise of the USDT.D suggests a broader trend. It seems that investors are not only selling altcoins into stablecoins, but are also withdrawing stablecoins from the market altogether.
“Expanding supply means new liquidity coming into the system,” Milk Road said. “When the trend stabilizes or reverses, it indicates that the flows that fueled the rally have subsided.” .
However, Milk Road sees a glimmer of optimism in the current situation. He argues that the situation does not necessarily indicate a crisis. Instead, the market is running on less “fuel” for the first time in years, and such changes often precede price changes.
Also, note a recent report from BeInCrypto different direction. Despite the decrease in market capitalization, the amount of stablecoins held on exchanges increased in November. This suggests that some investors see the decline as…Position opportunities By the end of the year.
