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An anonymous comment on 4chan, which correctly pointed to the top of the Bitcoin cycle on October 6, 2025, almost two years ago, has returned with a much stronger decision. The trader expects Bitcoin to reach $250,000 in 2026.
These expectations have resurfaced in cryptocurrency circles as many technical indicators on the chain and technical indicators have become bearish.
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A proven decision, not a price target
In December 2023, the anonymous participant offered a time cycle model instead of a price forecast. The thesis was based on historical analogy. look up 1,064 days since The low of a market bears at the high of a cyclehe recited it Almost 364 days of decay.
This structure is expected to reach its all-time high on October 6, 2025, roughly when Bitcoin peaked before… It collapsed after 4 days.
This accuracy gave the new predictions weight, even among skeptics.
In the last post, Anonymous argues that the broader structure is not broken.
Instead, the current decline represents a reset phase before another expansion phase, with 2026 identified as the next price peak.
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Most Bitcoin charts look bearish right now
Short term data It tells a completely different story.
The Bitcoin Compact Market Index (BCMI) It is reversed from high levels, historically associated with late cycle conditions.
Momentum indicators have weakenedThe price had difficulty recovering the key psychological areas after the October peak.
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At the same time, it slowed down Apparent demand growthmeasured by the net activity of the new buyer, it fell sharply compared to highs in early 2025. Similar demand slowdowns preceded large corrections in previous cycles, including 2021 and 2017.
From a traditional analytical perspective, these signals indicate caution.
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Why didn’t Paul’s case go away?
The unknown forecasts challenge the idea that local bearish signals determine the entire cycle. Previous bull markets have also experienced multi-month corrections and demand resets before making their final parabolic moves.
Structural tailwinds remain. The supply of Bitcoin continues to grow In compression after partition. The institutional infrastructure, from ETFs to payment lines, remains consolidated, even as speculative interest declines.
Historically, the strongest increases have been followed by periods of doubt, not optimism.
The entity’s anonymous goal of $250,000 for 2026 is framed not as sentiment or opinion, but as a continuation of the mechanics of the previous cycle.
Whether the decision proves right or wrong, the episode highlights a familiar pattern in Bitcoin markets. Short-term indicators often turn bearish before the end of long-term cycles.
Right now, the price of Bitcoin is sitting in an uncomfortable middle ground.
