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Bitcoin fell below $65,000 during after-hours trading in Asia as renewed tensions over tariffs weighed on overall risk sentiment. As the major cryptocurrencies continued their downward trend, Tether’s USDT showed a signal that had only been seen once before.
This move raises questions about whether this represents a major turning point in the market or signals more downward pressure to come.
Cryptocurrency Dry Powder Shrinks: What USDT Shrinkage Means for BTC
Analyst Moreno noted in a recent post that the change in the market capitalization of USDT in 60 days fell below -$3 billion. According to his analysis, this limit has only been exceeded once before.
This happened during a bear market in late 2022, when Bitcoin was bottoming out near $16,000 amid widespread fear and forced selling. And force investors to sell.
The same indicator reached similar levels again now. This comes at a time when Bitcoin is trading between the range of $65,000 to $70,000 after a record high that reached a previous historical peak.
It serves fixed currencies like USDT Like the “dry dust” in the crypto ecosystem. When high See the USDTThis usually reflects the entry of new capital into risky platforms and assets.
When supply decreases, this indicates… Forced refundsrisk-averse behavior, or transfer of investments outside the system. In a 60-day period, a multi-billion dollar contraction indicates a continued withdrawal of liquidity and not just short-term fluctuations.
This is crucial for Bitcoin, being a liquidity-sensitive asset that reflexively reacts to it, the post said.
Moreno also highlighted that USDT recorded three times in a single day that it surpassed the network Billion dollar flows In one sitting. These major incidents have centered around periods of extreme volatility or local market bottoms in Bitcoin.
He explained in his opinion that such redemptions often reflect the exit of institutions or large owners from the ecosystem. These dynamics tend to occur near exhaustion stages rather than at the beginning of long declines, he noted.
However, Moreno did not present the signal as inherently bullish. Emphasize that context remains crucial. According to him,
Moreno explained that in previous cycles, after the liquidation of the forced debt was completed and the inflows of USDT stabilized, Bitcoin moved into a strong medium-term trend as monetary conditions returned to normal.
Moreno added that the current risk-reward profile depends on whether this stability is achieved. If the USDT supply continues to decrease, the downward pressure may continue.
Moreno concluded that if the flows stabilize or reverse, the imbalance would quickly change in favor of the upside. Historically, extreme situations of monetary stress have represented an opportunity, but only after the exhaustion of sales has been confirmed.
Analysts suggest that the next major bottom for Bitcoin could arrive at the end of 2026
Liquidity indicators are currently showing signs of tension, but some analysts argue that Bitcoin’s broader market structure indicates that a bottom may take several more months.
An analyst predicted the next big fund It could almost be After 230 to 240 days. Based on that framework, the expected window to reach the overall minimum falls between October 11 and October 21, 2026.
The analyst said Until the cycle is complete, the increase can only be temporary rebounds, and not a confirmed structural inversion.
Another market watcher noted similarly Until November 2026 As a possible time frame for the bottom of the cycle. If these predictions are correct, this means that Bitcoin may witness further declines before a full structural recovery begins.
However, cycle patterns are probabilistic and not directly predictive. Although historical time frames provide structure, external variables It can speed up or slow down Anticipated turning points.
