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Strategy Inc., also known as MicroStrategy, has posted a strong rebound in its share price since the beginning of February. After forming a local fund on February 5, MSTR’s share price increased by about 33% in just several sessions. This move came after the recovery of Bitcoin and the return of major investor interest in the Bitcoin-related business model of MicroStrategy, which is led by Michael Saylor.
This rally in MicroStrategy’s stock price looks strong on the surface. But context is important. The main question remains whether this growth reflects permanent confidence in the long-term strategy towards Bitcoin or is it just another temporary growth linked to the sentiment of the cryptocurrency market.
Bitcoin and profits explain the rebound – but also define its limits
It shows that the long-term behavior of Strategic’s stock price is still closely linked to Bitcoin.
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After Bitcoin peaked near $126,000 in October, selling pressure spread across cryptocurrency stocks. The strategy followed almost immediately. From its peak in October, MicroStrategy’s stock price has fallen more than 70% as Bitcoin enters a deep correction.
Since February 5, Bitcoin has recovered by about 11%, going from close to $63,000 to $70,000. During the same period, Strategic jumped about 33%. This three-to-one interaction shows how well the stock correlates to Bitcoin’s movements and reinforces the strong correlation between MicroStrategy and Bitcoin.
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Add the earnings report a second layer of support.
In its Q4 2025 report, Strategy reported revenue of $123 million, up 1.9% from the previous year. Subscription revenue jumped more than 62%, demonstrating continued strength in the cloud computing business. Gross margins were close to 66%, providing the core software unit with a stable cash flow.
The huge net loss was primarily driven by non-cash accounting losses on Bitcoin holdings accumulated as part of Michael Saylor’s long-term strategy. They do not reflect operational weakness. Management emphasized Bitcoin’s continued accumulation and long-term positioning.
This combination, with the stabilization of Bitcoin and revenues that beat expectations, set a plan for a recovery in the price of shares of MicroStrategy.
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Text display also has limitations. Until then Bitcoin dominates the valuation, the growth of the strategy remains relevant Cryptocurrency courses. This made the positioning of the institutions very important.
The big money is quietly accumulating, but the bears also control the momentum
Consider one of the most important signals to be the Chaikin Money Flow or CMF indicator.
The CMF measured whether large investors bought or sold by combining price with volume. When the CMF rises, it indicates that the big players are accumulating. As it decreases, a distribution appears to occur.
Between the end of November and the beginning of February, the value of the strategy continued to decline. But the CMF slowly trended upward during that period. This created a bullish divergence. While the sentiment of the business on the shares of MicroStrategy is weakened, the big investors have been quietly building their positions.
The analysis said that after February 5, the CMF finally moved above zero for the first time since December. This confirmed the entry of new capital into the stock. It suggests that the big funds stand for a potential improvement of Bitcoin and sees the strategy, previously known as MicroStrategy, as a leveraged way to express this view.
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Momentum told a more cautious story.
The Bull-Bear Power indicator measures whether buyers or sellers are controlling the short-term squeeze. Despite the 33% increase in… The price of Microstrategy sharesThis indicator remains negative. Sellers are still controlled. These data indicated that aggregation had occurred, but the control had not yet reversed.
In simple terms, institutions have bought, but are not yet ready to push prices aggressively higher. This made the rally vulnerable to sudden reversals.
This fragility also appeared in the trend structure.
MicroStrategy’s stock price remains below major trend barriers despite 33% rise
Confirm the trend confirmation is incomplete. It uses exponential moving averages, or EMAs, as a price average that gives more weight to recent data. Help determine if a trend is strengthening or weakening.
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Note that when the price trades below the main EMA, the signals often fail. Momentum is usually regained when these averages come back. Currently, the stock remains below the 20-day EMA. This level acted as resistance throughout the downward trend of the MicroStrategy stock price.
He explained that in early October, when MicroStrategy’s stock price broke above the 20-day EMA, the stock rose an additional 10% shortly thereafter. This confirmed the strength of the trend. The current recovery you have not yet achieved. When the EMA does not recover clearly, the demonstrations tend to stall. This has also increased the sensitivity towards Bitcoin. Even a small pullback in BTC could lead to renewed selling in mstr.
It determines that the structure is now confined to a restricted set of key levels. On the downside, $138 represents the first major resistance. The end of each day above this area indicated the strength of the improvement in the price of shares mstr.
Make sure that above this level, $150 represents the critical barrier. This level corresponds to psychological resistance and the main moving average (EMA). A sustained move above $150 indicated… True trend correction for mstr stocks.
Recovered at $150, the next target was close to $189. The wider movement towards $300 was achieved only after this level was crossed. This remains a secondary scenario and not the main rule. On the other hand, the risks remain clear.
Designate the $107 to $104 area as the February low. This goal has been tried once already. A break below $104 canceled the rebound.
As it happened, the stock price of MicroStrategy could fall towards $ 82. The deeper weakness exposed the area of ​​$ 56 near the Fibonacci retracement level 0.618.
