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The price of Solana witnessed a strong recovery after a sharp decline in a descending channel. After sliding toward the bottom of that structure, SOL found strong support near $67 in early February and bounced back by more than 30%. The rebound was driven by low dip buying, perhaps by the more hopeful crowd.
At first glance, the rebound seems convincing. But the SOL price remains trapped under significant resistance, and data on the chain shows mixed sentiment. The market now faces a crucial test: buyers can turn this rebound into a sustained recovery, or sell pressure to sell and drag the price lower.
Dip buyers are defending a key support area
It started The apostasy of Solana Before the price reaches the bottom of its descending channel. Instead, buyers first entered near the $67 area, which acted as an internal support level while the price was still lower.
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On February 6, SOL printed a long wick lower on the daily candle near $67. The long wick lower shows that buyers are absorbing selling pressure aggressively and rejecting lower prices. This type of candle often appears when demand suddenly increases during panic phases.
This behavior was reinforced by the Money Flow Index (MFI). MFI combines price and volume to measure whether flows are in or out of an asset. High average industrial funding while prices are falling usually indicates low accumulation.
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Between December 18 and February 6, go Solana price Down, but the average financial investment market has an upward trend. This bullish divergence showed that capital was entering the market firmly despite the downward trend. In simple terms, buyers were active even during the price decline.
This initial defense of $67 prevents Solana from sliding directly to the lower border of the channel. This created the basis for a 30% retracement. But early buying alone is not enough to maintain the trend. To understand that this support is permanent, we need to know who is supporting the rebound after the rebound.
Long-term SOL holders are making a comeback, but conviction remains limited
After the decline, attention turned to long investors.
For this, we look at Hodler’s net position change (30 days). This metric tracks whether portfolios holding SOL for more than 155 days are accumulating or distributing. These investors usually form the backbone of long-term trends.
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On February 6, long holders added about $1.88 million of SOL. By February 8, that number had grown to about 1.97 million daily. This represents an increase of approximately 5% in the net backlog.
This shows that holders are starting to come back after the crash, consistent with the lower purchasing power. This is a constructive sign, because sustainable recovery rarely happens without their participation.
However, the pace remains slow. In strong recovery phases, long-term accumulation accelerates rapidly. Here, the purchase is cautious and gradual. This suggests that investors are testing the recovery rather than fully committing.
As the long-term conviction is still developing, the recovery remains vulnerable. This makes the behavior of short-term traders even more important.
Short selling has decreased, but the pressure of losses has not decreased yet
The batch of day-to-week holders, representing high-reaction portfolios, started selling during the bounce. On February 7, this group owns about 8.32% of SOL supplies. By February 9, this percentage had dropped to around 5.40%. That’s a drop of nearly 35% in just two days, as HODL Waves data shows.
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This metric separates SOL wallets based on how long the coins are held.
Despite this selloff, the price held on to most of its gains. This shows that dip buyers, and perhaps longer investors, have bought into the exit. This is a positive indicator. However, there is also another visible risk in the NUPL Short Holders Index, which measures whether new buyers make profits or losses.
On February 6, NUPL fell to around -0.95, reflecting severe losses and panic. After the rebound, the result improved to about -0.70. This is an improvement of about 26%.
Losses have eclipsed, but short-term gainers are still in the red. Historically, early recoveries from NUPL often lead to unstable bottoms. I cut my losses too soon. If the price fails to rise soon, other short-term holders may sell again to avoid deeper declines. This could lead to another wave of stress. This brings attention back to charting the price.
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Because $96 will determine whether Solana’s price recovery will continue or fail
All technical and chain signals are now grouped around the same area.
Since recovery, Solana was surrounded Between about $ 80 and $ 96. This range reflects the hesitation of buyers and sellers.
As long as the price remains above $80, the rebound remains intact, despite the possibility of short-term selling. But if $80 breaks, the next major zone is close to $67 to $64. Losing that zone would reopen the path to $41, which represents a pullback of almost 50% from current levels and is in line with the broader expectation of the channel.
This is a structural risk that continues to weigh on the market.
On the positive side, $96 is still the most important level, and is the main test. It acted as a strong support before the first crash in February and now acts as a major resistance.
If the breach above $96 continues, it will provide renewed confidence. From there, Solana could target $116 and maybe $148. Without claiming this level, the rebounds will likely stall. Currently, the price remains below this barrier.
A prudent long-term purchase. Short-term losses decrease very quickly. Up to $96 is recovered with a strong participation, a jump is not safe.
