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Robinhood’s stock price is up about 23% since its February 5 low near $71. On the surface, this looks like a solid recovery for HOOD. The company also recently recorded its best financial year ever.
But the bigger picture tells a different story. Weak cryptocurrency activity, declining fund flows, and increasing technical risks suggest that this rebound may not last. So far, downward pressure remains the prevailing force.
The power of profits and the withdrawal of cryptocurrencies moves in opposite directions
Robinhood delivered a strong financial performance in 2025. Revenue for the full year was about $4.5 billion, more than 50% year over year. Net income reached about $1.9 billion. Fourth-quarter revenue rose 27%, and earnings per share beat expectations. Options trading, interest income and gold subscriptions have grown dramatically.
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These numbers show that the underlying business is doing better. Robinhood no longer relies solely on meme shares and cryptocurrency trading. It has become more diverse and stable.
The company also launched the public testnet for the Robinhood series. This is a layer 2 Ethereum network built on Arbitrum. It aims to support tokenized stocks, intraday trading, and DeFi tools. This is a long-term growth move, not a short-term price driver. But cryptocurrencies are still a problem.
Cryptocurrency revenue fell 38% year over year to around $221 million. This decline was associated with Bitcoin’s decline and weaker trading volume. Since cryptocurrencies also contribute a large share of activity, the slowdown has hurt overall revenue. Fourth-quarter sales missed analysts’ estimates by about $50 million.
Markets focused on that loss.
After earnings, the stock fell about 7% in extended trading. This showed that investors still see cryptocurrencies as a major risk. Even strong profits and new products could not compensate for this weakness. After that poor performance in the cryptocurrency space, Robinhood’s share price seems to have eased fears of a bearish pattern breakout.
HOOD’s price broke below the down channel on February 2, leading to a near 30% crash. While $71 provided support, crypto-driven weakness may soon try to push prices lower.
That is why the recovery from February 5 looks fragile. This is part of a broader trend, not a new uptrend.
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Poor cash flow and death risks indicate a decline in confidence
Price action alone does not explain everything. Money flow indicators show that large investors remain cautious.
One of the main tools is Chaikin Money Flow, or CMF. CMF combines price and volume to show whether major players are buying or selling. When it stays above zero, institutions are usually accumulated. When they stop, they exit or move away.
Currently, Robinhood’s CMF indicator remains negative.
Even during the 23% bounce, CMF failed to recover to the zero line. It also remains below the downtrend line. This means that the rally lacked strong support from large portfolios.
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This makes bouncing balls unstable. Mobile media adds another caveat.
The exponential moving average, or EMA, gives more weight to recent prices. Traders use it to evaluate the strength of a trend. When short-term averages fall below long-term averages, momentum weakens.
Robin Hood is faced now Danger of the “Cross of Death.” This happens when the 50-day EMA falls below the 200-day EMA. This often indicates a long-term weakness.
Two bearish crosses have already formed on January 30 and February 4. After the signal in January, the stock fell on 30%. Now, the 50-day system is back to 200 days. If this positive overlap is confirmed, the downward pressure may increase.
There is only a slight positive.
Break-even volume, or OBV, compares the volume on up days and down days. It shows whether buyers or sellers dominate. Between September and February, OBV formed lower lows, while HOOD made lower lows. This suggests that some individual investors are still accumulating.
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If cryptocurrencies continue to weaken, even this support may disappear. Without strong demand from large portfolios, retail buying alone is rarely enough to reverse the trend.
The new down channel indicates key price levels for Robinhood stock
The chart structure remains bearish.
Robinhood trading Inside a bearish channel since October. A down channel is formed when the price makes highs and lows in parallel trend lines. This indicates a controlled but ongoing sale.
Now, a new parallel channel is formed based on the recent price action. This updated structure indicates downside potential of more than 40% if the lower trendline breaks. The first major price level for HOOD is $71, which is the last support zone.
As long as the price remains above, the bounce has a chance to survive despite the withdrawal from cryptocurrencies. A full break below $71 will bring lower levels into the picture. If that happens, the next major zone will be near $55.
On the positive side, resistance remains strong. The HUD stock price needs to recover $87 and then $98 to improve the short-term structure. Above that, $107 and $119 act as major barriers.
