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Global markets could enter a new phase of volatility after Goldman Sachs warned that systematic funds could sell tens of billions of dollars worth of stocks in the coming weeks.
This wave of selling may extend to Bitcoin, gold and silver as liquidity conditions deteriorate.
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Goldman warns that CTA sales may accelerate when liquidity decreases
According to Goldman’s marketing desk, trend funds known as commodity trading advisors (CTAs) have already triggered sell signals in the S & P 500. In addition, the markets are expected to be net sellers in the near term, regardless of whether the markets stabilize or continue to decline.
He appreciates it The bank said that about $ 33 billion of shares could be sold in a week if the markets weakened more.
More importantly, Goldman models suggest that as much as $80 billion in additional systematic selling could be triggered over the next month if the S&P 500 continues to decline or break above key technical levels.
Market conditions are already fragile. Goldman analysts noted that liquidity has decreased and options positions have changed in ways that could increase price volatility.
When traders are in a “short range” mode, they are often forced to sell in declining markets and buy in rising markets, causing Increases volatility Accelerates movements during the day.
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Goldman also noted that other systematic strategies — including risk-balancing funds and volatility control funds — still have room to reduce exposure if volatility continues to rise. This means that sales pressure cannot be limited to additional transfer agreements only.
Investor sentiment is also showing signs of pressure. Goldman’s Internal Panic Index recently approached levels associated with extreme stress.
Meanwhile, retail investors, after a year of infectious declines, are beginning to show fatigue. Recent flows indicate net sales rather than purchases.
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Although Goldman’s analysis focused primarily on stocks, the implications extend beyond stock markets.
Historically, large flow-driven stock sales have increased the tight liquidity conditions due to increased volatility in macro-sensitive assets, including cryptocurrencies.
Bitcoin, which has begun to trade more and more in line with a broader sense of risk during periods of… Liquidity pressuresmay face renewed volatility if the forced sell-off in stocks accelerates.
Actions related to digital currencies Speculative positions favored by the retail sector have already shown sensitivity to recent market fluctuations, indicating that positions remain fragile.
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At the same time, you can That could lead to turmoil in stocks in complex cross-asset flows. While risky conditions can put pressure on commodities,… For precious metals such as gold and silver Safe demand also attracts during periods of heightened uncertainty, leading to strong moves in both directions, depending on broader liquidity trends and dollar strength.
At the same time, the key variable remains liquidity. with Systematic reduction of fundingincreasing volatility, and approaching seasonal market weakness, markets may be unstable in the coming weeks.
If Goldman’s predictions come true, next month could test stocks, with a ripple effect on Bitcoin and precious metals.
