Portugal slams Polymarket after suspicious election betting activity

Portuguese authorities have moved to block access to Polymarket after millions of euros were bet on the outcome of the country’s presidential election before the official results were announced.

The move comes as prediction markets continue to gain momentum, with sports, politics and cryptocurrencies accounting for the majority of activity on the platform.

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Polymarket is under fire from regulators in Portugal

The Gambling Regulation and Inspection Service (SRIJ) has confirmed that a cryptocurrency-based prediction platform is operating illegally in Portugal, as betting on political events is prohibited by national law, Reinacensa said.

The regulator said that Polymarket was officially notified on Friday and given 48 hours to cease its activities in the country. Despite this, the platform remained available until Monday, prompting SRIJ to ask internet service providers to block it.

Attention was drawn to Polemarket after an unusually large amount of bets were placed on the Portuguese presidential race in the final hours before the polls closed.

It is noted that more than 4 million euros had been bet immediately before the results were known, while the total volume in the main market for the presidency has now exceeded $ 120 million. During this period, the odds suddenly changed in favor of Antonio José Seguro, long before the official predictions were issued.

Market data indicated that Seijuro’s probability of winning increased from around 60% in the morning to more than 90% in the early evening, before reaching near certainty when TV channels began broadcasting the forecast.

The quick move fueled speculation that some traders may have gained early access to survey data or other non-public information.