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Portugal’s Gaming Authority has banned the cryptocurrency prediction platform Polymarket after questionable trading methods were discovered during the presidential election, which saw more than €4 million bet in just two hours before the results came out.
I ordered The Portuguese Gaming Regulatory and Inspection Authority (SRIJ) ordered the platform to cease operations and face a ban after its operations were found to be in violation of the country’s anti-political betting laws.
The case revolves around questionable betting changes that took place when exit polls became popular, raising questions about information leakage and insider trading in the betting markets.
Portugal is taking action against it @Polymarket: The Biggest Call for Crypto Market Predictions?
According to Rádio Renascença, Portugal’s gambling regulator SRIJ has ordered blockchain prediction platform Polymarket to suspend operations in the country and… https://t.co/4dVlcPNCiG
– Tax man
(@cryptaxpt) January 20, 2026
Questionable bets require investigation
According to For reports From the Portuguese Renascença, António José Seguro enters Sunday’s presidential election with 60% of the Polymarket victory while his partner André Ventura has only 30%.
By 6:00 p.m., a full hour before the polls closed, Seguro’s chances of winning had risen to 96%, reaching 100% when government forecasts confirmed his victory.
This period has also confirmed a lot of skepticism in the markets predicting the next president.
At 6:30 PM, Seijuro’s chance of reaching Belém Palace increased from 68.6% to 93.2% within an hour.
At the same time, Cotrim de Figueiredo’s probability of victory dropped from 22% to just 2.5%, and settled at 95% in favor of Seguro by 8pm when Portuguese voters were first informed.
Between 6pm and 8pm, the critical time between Seguro’s challenges rising and the results being announced, more than 5 million euros were sold in different markets.
The amount of sales in the main presidential market exceeded $120 million (about 103 million euros), while other markets earned about $10 million (about 8.1 million euros).
The well-known secret of how the bettors were able to identify the winner two hours before the official announcement came in the intense scrutiny.
About 6 o’clock in the evening. Preliminary results predictions will begin to circulate In particular, they all confirmed the success of Seguro with more than 30% of votes.
The two candidates will compete in the race on February 8, although the Polymarket platform will not be available for Portuguese sellers this time.
Strong regulatory and compliance measures in Portugal
Confirm it SRIJ knew about Polymarket. Recently “Corporate actions are considered” illegal “.
According to the Renascença website, the governing body said this “This website is not authorized to offer betting in Portugal, and under national law, betting on political or real events, whether national or international, is prohibited.”
Polymarket received notice on Friday to stop Portuguese operations within 48 hours.
By Monday, the site remained active, prompting SRIJ to notify the network to block the platform.
Portugal joins a growing list of countries banning the use of the platform.
Polymarket is closed in Ukraine, Singapore and France , Although it faces sanctions in Australia, Belgium, Germany, the United Kingdom, Iran and North Korea, among other countries .
– Cryptonews.com (@cryptonews) January 13, 2026
In particular, concerns about insider trading in the prediction markets have increased due to large bets on political events, especially after PolyMarket almost predicted the victory of President Trump in the 2024 election.
Talk to each other Austin Wheeler, an analyst at Messari, a well-known blockchain data analysis firm, said insider trading should not be banned. “It is possible in predictive markets that use know-your-customer (KYC) procedures.”
“For platforms that require KYC, the most effective way is to prevent users from accessing real markets,” Wheeler said. Adding that government actors can be banned from political or political markets.
Calci challenges Polymarket’s dominance in the forecast market
Know Your Customer (KYC) requirements vary widely between the official forecasting platforms.
Calchi implements identity verification as part of a model that is regulated under the guidance of the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), enabling regulated exchanges like Coinbase to create prediction market websites that operate through Calci’s approved system.
Although Polymarket is also officially recognized by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), access to authorized markets is very different, with ongoing legal questions about whether the platform offers contract trading or gambling under a different name.
Amidst the regulatory challenges and the Kalshi cases, he came to the fore December 2025 analysis of sales volume from Polymarket A 28% increase in political betting, with more than $4.3 billion being sold compared to $5.96 billion for Calcio at the same time.
A note Portugal has banned Polymarket from exceeding 4 million euros in domestic sales appeared for the first time Cryptonews Arabic.
