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Polymarket recorded a nominal daily trading volume of $478.0 million, with the policy classification alone accounting for $220.0 million, almost half of the daily activity.
Rival prediction markets platform Kalshay has faced a wave of criticism from users after a controversial decade on the Khamenei market.
Polymarket hits historic high as escalating geopolitical tensions drive cryptocurrency betting
Forecast markets rose to historic levels when the US and Israel launched coordinated attacks on Iran.
Polymarket recorded all-time highs across the platform and its political markets. According to the data collected by Defioasis, the Polymarket jump coincides directly with those attacks.
This shows the platform’s ability to price geopolitical events faster than TradFi markets or survey models.
Some strike timing contracts set records of their own, with individual trades reaching $90.0 million, reflecting the massive liquidity flowing through the platform.
However, accusations of insider trading have clouded momentum, with Bubblemaps identifying at least six titles that generated profits of nearly $1.2 million on bets related to the Iranian conflict.
This growth in activity reflects how prediction markets are gradually blurring the distinctions between financial speculation and geopolitical forecasting, attracting the attention of traders, legislators and regulators.
Instant prices of real-world events demonstrate the efficiency of blockchain-based markets. However, it also raises concerns about transparency and fairness, especially when portfolios appear to be able to accurately predict outcomes.
Football makes a reaction on the market Khamenei, the CEO defends compromise and ethics
At the same time, Kalshay, an American licensed prediction markets platform, faced its own controversy over a contract titled “Will Ali Khamenei be removed from the position of Supreme Leader?”
This market, which had a total trading volume of more than $50.0 million, recorded almost $20.0 million traded on the day of the strike alone.
After reports of Khamenei’s death during the strikes, critics claimed that the platform had effectively created an alternative death market, despite its stated rules against profiting from the results of death.
The CEO of Cashy, Tariq Mansour, spoke about the reaction on the X platform (Twitter), explaining that all positions will be settled at the last traded prices before the death. At the same time, posthumous compensation will be fully restored, including all… Business fees.
Mansour defended the market’s design as compatible with American regulations. He noted that the leadership changes in Iran carry significant geopolitical, economic and national security implications. That makes such markets relevant without directly incentivizing death, he explained.
Mansour wrote that the market on the exit of Ali Khamenei as supreme leader was important because the leadership changes in Iran have a significant impact on the global order, explaining that traders can also profit or lose on legitimate political results instead of death.
He explained that the settlement process strictly adheres to the terms of the contract submitted to the CFTC, which refers to the last traded price before the death of Khamenei, although there was ambiguity in the timing of the reports.
Polymarket, on the one hand, sets new standards for business volumes amid geopolitical tensions. At the same time, Kashi faces ethical scrutiny.
Both cases highlight the possibilities and risks of prediction markets. These platforms offer unprecedented speed and transparency in global event pricing.
The events of February 28 show that they will also amplify ethical dilemmas and attract regulatory attention during crypto-driven speculation.
