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Paycoin has fallen about 7% in the last 24 hours, joining the decline of the broader market. Even with this success, its monthly movement is still close to -8.7%, which is better than the loss of almost 21% of Bitcoin and the fall of 26% of Ethereum in the same period.
The question now is simple: is this the start of a deeper decline, or just a reset before the next PI rally?
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Another downward shock, after two metrics indicate that the decline may be over
The last stage of the decline begins with a clear bearish event on the 12-hour chart. The bearish cross of the PI token has been completed The 20-period EMA has fallen below the 100-period EMA. The EMA is a moving average that gives more weight to recent prices so that traders can see short-term momentum more clearly.
That crossover usually keeps pressure on the price in the short term, which is what we saw with the 7% daily loss and a close to 10% loss from yesterday’s high.
But beneath the surface, two internal metrics currently indicate that the worst of this wave may be over.
The first is the Relative Strength Index (RSI), which measures momentum. Between November 21 and December 1, PI coin formed a lower highBut the RSI formed a lower decline. This is a hidden bullish bias. It often appears when a trend wants to push after a pullback.
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However, the RSI is still not in the completely oversold zone and may end up falling slightly before recovering with the price.
The second element comes from Chaiken Cash Flow (CMF), which tracks whether the buyer’s or seller’s check is in the pocket. At CMF Strong record with PI. From November 3 to November 19, CMF jumped more than 313%. During almost the same period, from November 4th to November 20th, the price of Pi coin increased by about 30.75%. When the CMF came up, I quickly followed the next price.
Currently, the CMF is still above zero and starting to rise again. The CMF should break above the descending trend line connecting the recent highs and lows. If these breakouts occur while the RSI maintains its deviation, the formation supports a stronger feedback action.
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Key Pi coin price levels that will confirm or kill the recovery
If PI buyers can build on this initial internal strength, the first task is to regain $0.238 with a daily close. From the current area near $0.229, this would be a retracement of about 4%.
A close above $0.238 opened the door to the next resistance zones near $0.255 and $0.266. If the broader market improves, the price could return Pi Coin Testing $0.284, which marked the top of the recent strong movement higher.
On the upside, PI should protect the supports around $0.225 and $0.223. Losing both levels will cancel the hidden bullish divergence and shift the focus to the next demand area near $0.209.
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Currently, Pi has taken a clear hit after a bearish EMA crossover, but is still holding up better than Bitcoin and Ethereum on a monthly basis. The RSI and CMF skewness suggests that the current decline may be closer to the end than the beginning.
Whether this situation will turn into a real recovery or just a temporary break is verified by two simple tests: break the trend line of the CMF and close the PI again above $0.238 without losing $0.223 along the way.
