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The price of Bitcoin rose almost 5% in the last 24 hours, briefly reaching the $70,000 level before falling towards $68,000. This recovery helped Bitcoin recover nearly 12% from its February 24 lows.
But despite this strong growth, Bitcoin could not keep above $70,000. This state of indecision does not come by chance. This situation reflects a deeper problem that Nexo Research Analyst Desislava Yaneva believes continues to limit Bitcoin’s ability to recover. Many data now show that although buy signals are emerging, sentiment remains weak. Until Bitcoin crosses the $70,000 to $70,800 area, this recovery may be incomplete.
The smart money is pointing to a price recovery, but the finding needs to be confirmed
The ultimate return of Bitcoin It didn’t happen without warning. A key index called the Smart Money Index (SMI) began to rise on February 24. This indicator tracks the trading behavior of informed traders, which are often associated with strategic moves. When this indicator increases, it indicates that experienced investors can start developing their strategies earlier.
This last happened on February 13, when the SMI began to move towards the signal line. At that time, the price of Bitcoin increased about 7% in two days.
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This time the movement was stronger. Bitcoin jumped nearly 12%, briefly touching the $70,000 level. Bitcoin is now forming what appears to be a cup and handle pattern. This structure is considered bullish. It often appears before outbreaks.
But the hack is not yet confirmed. Because Bitcoin is still stuck below the critical bullish collar area between $70,000 and $70,800.
This area now acts as a starting level. Until Bitcoin exceeds this range, the model will remain incomplete.
A Nexo analyst explains why Bitcoin’s price recovery still lacks conviction
Despite bullish technical signals, fundamental demand remains weak. The trading volume shows this clearly.
Earlier in February, the trading volume of Bitcoin reached $125.5 billion. This happened during the previous price action. Today, the business volume is about $52 billion. This represents a decrease of more than 58%.
Desislava Yanieva emphasized the weak participation of the wider traders in the markets.
Desislava Yanieva reported that in 2026, the average BTC trading volumes will decrease by about 17% compared to the 2025 average, reflecting the low market participation.
This means that fewer participants support the movements. This is crucial because price increases require strong market participation to continue. At the same time, open interest has also decreased significantly.
Open interest means the number of active futures positions. At the beginning of January, open interest was about $37.5 billion. Now it is about $21.5 billion. This represents a decrease of 43%. This tells us that fewer traders are willing to take large positions.
Yanieva added to this discovery by saying that:
Yanieva said that derivatives positions have normalized and funding conditions have calmed down, suggesting a structured deleveraging rather than the emergence of systemic market pressures.
This indicates the stability of the market. But it also means the absence of strong buying pressure. This helps explain why Bitcoin’s recovery remains slow.
Long-term Bitcoin holders are still selling despite the price rebound
Another major indication of weak conviction, coupled with the absence of strong buying pressure, emerged from long-term Bitcoin holders.
The Net Long Bitcoin Holder Position Change measure tracks whether long-term investors are accumulating or selling Bitcoin over a 30-day period. These holders are considered the strongest hands in the market because they often buy at times of collapse and sell at market peaks.
But for now, they are still for sale.
February 24 showed a net decrease of 78,583 BTC on a 30-day basis. The pace of sales has only slightly slowed down to 75,911 btc. This number is still much higher than the reduction of 61,431 btc seen on February 23rd.
This shows that even when the price of Bitcoin rebounded by about 12%, the long-term holders did not move into the accumulation, but rather continued to distribute the supply.
This creates a huge problem for the bull, because a sustained Bitcoin price recovery usually starts when long-term holders start buying aggressively and not selling.
Desislava Yanieva also pointed to this wider lack of conviction as part of macroeconomic concerns (the global economy).
Desislava Yanieva said that macro uncertainty continues to limit liquidity, although the excess associated with the cryptocurrency market is largely liquidated and the market is in a healthier position.
This confirms that while the structure of Bitcoin is improving as the excess as leverage is removed, the strong conviction has not returned. Until long-term holders stop selling and start accumulating again, Bitcoin’s upside may be limited — especially near major resistance areas like $70,000.
The supply cluster between $70,000 and $70,800 is the real barrier for the price of Bitcoin
The strongest reasons for Bitcoin to settle near $70,000 come from supply chain data. This date is called URPD, or UTXO Realized Price Distribution. It shows where investors last bought Bitcoin.
Now there are two main groups of displays. The first is located near $69,400 and contains about 0.93% of the supply. The second is at $70,600 and contains about 0.60% of the supply. Together, this area contains about 1.5% of the total supply of Bitcoin.
This makes it one of the strongest areas of resistance. This explains why Bitcoin reached $70,000 but could not stay above it.
Investors who previously bought at these levels will likely sell to cash out. This creates selling pressure, but also explains why breaking above $70-800 could break everything.
Above $70,800, the offer becomes much weaker, as the last major block is broken at $70,600. This means that there are fewer sellers, and if BTC goes above $70,800, the next major target is near $78,600. This represents a potential upside of more than 11%, based on the distance from the bottom of the cup to the neck.
Moreover, this level is not random, and the technical resistance corresponds to a large URPD block at $78,200.
However, downside risks remain as the general trend for Bitcoin price points for further declines. Bitcoin needs to be above $65,700 to maintain this bullish structure. If Bitcoin falls below $62,400, the entire bullish pattern fails.
Bitcoin is currently in a decision phase. Signals from professional investors indicate an early position start. However, low trading volume, declining open interest, and strong supply at $70,000 still prevent a bullish breakout move. The analyst of Nexo Desislava Yaneva explained that the structure of the market is improving, but complete faith has not returned.
