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Bitcoin continues to trade near $92,000 after this week’s recovery, although a growing body of indicators on the chain now suggest that the market has already slipped into a downward cycle.
This comes in stark contrast to recent predictions from market leaders such as Tom Lee and Arthur Hayes, who argue that Bitcoin could end the year significantly higher.
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Bullish expectations collide with the data
Lee made an amendment His previous target of $250,000 now expects Bitcoin to remain above $100,000 until the end of the year.
meanwhile, Arthur Hayes maintains a much more aggressive view, Claiming the recent decline to the lows at $80,000 is the bottom of the cycle and the forecast of a move towards $200,000-$250,000.
However, the Current market structure It doesn’t fit any scenario.
shows CryptoQuant Composite Bullish Signals Indicator The reason for this. During previous bull phases, including late 2023 and early 2025, the model showed broad green conditions in valuation, demand growth, network activity, and stablecoin liquidity.
Since the middle of 2025, these components have always turned red. The MVRV Z-score reversed into overheated territory, network activity weakened, and stablecoin purchasing power decreased.
The pattern looks like the early stages of a contraction in 2022 rather than a continued increase in 2025.
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also, Bullish signal indicatorprovides a more detailed view. Bitcoin spent the first half of 2025 in bullish territory with readings above 60.
In late August, the index began to decline sharply, falling below 40 in October and remaining steady through November despite short-term price fluctuations.
The last reading is in the 20-30 range, in depth Bearish conditions. The bounce off last week’s lows did little to change the underlying cycle signals.
The Paul Scurry Price Related Index reinforces this view. The pattern went from green “very positive” signals earlier this year to red “negative” and “very negative” readings continuing through September, October and November.
Even the recent recovery towards $92,000 is classified as a rally in bearish territory, reflecting the distribution phases seen in the previous session tops.
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Momentum indicators strengthen the bearish case for Bitcoin
The market momentum indicators reflect the same change in the cycle. The RSI remains neutral around 50, indicating a lack of conviction behind the current weekly advance.
Chaikin Money Flow remains negative for most of the month, It reflects continuous external capital flows Even when the price recovers.
While the MACD has recently turned positive, the histogram is already showing weakness in amplitude. This suggests that the movement lacks sustained momentum.
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Additional signals deepen the caution. Short-term RSI rises above 70 in recent days have failed to hold, showing that sellers remain active during any breakout attempts. The inability of the CMF to return to positive territory highlights continued distribution rather than accumulation.
While the fragile MACD crossover reflects the conditions seen during previous bearish market rallies, where momentum improves briefly before reversing.
The chain, liquidity and momentum indicators combine to indicate a structural shift towards a downward cycle.
While discussing Tom Lee andArthur Hayes While Bitcoin could regain its previous strength, current market data suggests the opposite.
Unless stablecoin liquidity, network activity and demand growth rebound decisively, Bitcoin’s recent recovery is likely to be a temporary recovery rather than the start of a new bull phase.
