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MicroStrategy’s stock price could not continue its growth despite the company continuing to buy more Bitcoin. The most recent purchase of $40 million, on February 23, coincided with the stock starting to decline again. But that was not the whole story.
MSTR stock fell more than 9% on February 24, followed by a 16% rebound on February 25, showing enthusiasm. At the time of writing, the stock is down more than 3% since yesterday’s close. The stock is now down about 4% from last Friday’s high and nearly 63% in six months, raising fresh concerns of a deeper collapse, at a time when BTC stock is back on the rise.
MicroStrategy added 592 BTC On February 23, he spent about $40 million at an average price close to $67,286. This pushed their possible totals to 717,722 BTC, with an average total cost of $76,020.
Typically, such aggressive buying supports investor confidence because it indicates long-term belief in Bitcoin’s future.
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But for now, carry on The price of Microstrategy shares Bearish rather than stable, moving steadily towards the bearish flag break that started on February 19, despite some bounces. These weaknesses mirror the behavior of Bitcoin itself.
The stock recorded a temporary recovery to $137 on February 25, benefiting from Bitcoin’s recovery from $64,500 to $69,400, a move of 2.5%. However, when Bitcoin fell again, MicroStrategy’s trajectory immediately reversed lower, showing how much its performance was tied to Bitcoin’s trend.
This shows that MicroStrategy is still trading as a leveraged Bitcoin proxy. When Bitcoin stops or weakens, MicroStrategy often falls faster because its valuation already takes into account a strong potential from its Bitcoin holdings.
The latest purchase of Bitcoin did not change this situation, which raises a more important question: Do institutional investors still support the stock?
The influx of institutional funds indicates an increased exit risk
The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) indicator is now flashing a warning sign. The CMF indicator measures whether large investors are buying or selling by combining price and trading volume.
When the CMF rises above zero, this indicates accumulation, meaning that institutional investors are buying. When it drops below zero, it indicates distribution, meaning that the capital is leaving the asset.
First, between January 12 and February 23, the index saw an increase while the stock price of MicroStrategy fell, with some jumps above the zero line. This positive divergence showed that institutional investors were quietly accumulating shares during weak periods. This accumulation sometimes led to net positive flows, leading to clear rebounds.
This also contributed to a 33% rebound between February 5th and February 25th. However, the situation is different now. The CMF indicator has become stable, close to the zero line. This suggests that institutional money is hesitant at the moment.
What is worrying is that the change happened just after MicroStrategy announced its latest Bitcoin purchase on February 23rd. The CMF Index suggests that institutional investors should not be accumulating MicroStrategy shares despite buying Bitcoin.
This disconnect weakens the bullish case and suggests that confidence in the stock itself may be declining. The next direction of the CMF line can determine the fate of the MSTR stock price.
At the same time, momentum indicators show that the recent decline (between February 25 and February 26) was not surprising, because the underlying strength has already begun to weaken.
Negative divergences warn of a decrease in the price of MSTR shares
The Relative Strength Index (RSI), which measures momentum strength on a scale of 0 to 100, is showing a bearish divergence before the recent decline.
Watch the MicroStrategy stock price form a lower high between December 9 and February 25, while the RSI forms a higher high. This pattern indicates a weak moment because the price is rising without strong buying support.
This type of divergence usually appears before major corrections. Similar divergences have appeared several times in recent months, each leading to sharp corrections.
For example, the expiration of one of the previous divergences in mid-January led to a collapse of 45%, forming a major downward trend that continues to define the broader structure of the stock.
The final close of the divergence on February 20 saw a decrease of about 13%. The current divergence has already caused a loss of 6% of gains, but since the larger bearish pattern is still active, this pullback may just be the beginning of a larger bearish wave. This will not be good news for MicroStrategy shareholders.
MicroStrategy’s price analysis structure indicates $70
Witnessed a crash in the share price Microstrategy Already under the bear flag pattern, which is a continuation pattern formed during temporary recoveries in the main downtrends. When this pattern is broken, it usually leads to another strong downward wave.
The most important support level is now near $119. If this level fails, the next support appears near $106, followed by a stronger technical level at $85.
The complete breakdown forecast based on Fibonacci retracement levels points towards the $71 area ($70 zone), which is in line with the 0.786 Fibonacci level and the expected mast decline of more than 45%.
The first signs of strength will not appear if you do not recover Action of Microstrategy Barrier $139. But the larger bullish structure remains in place unless the stock breaks above $155, canceling the breakout pattern and signaling a possible trend reversal.
Until the stock picks up those resistances, the current structure suggests that MicroStrategy remains vulnerable to further downside, with the $70 area now emerging as a realistic technical target if it breaks $85, given Bitcoin’s continued weakness.
