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We are starting to notice the first signs of the XRP price stabilizing after a strong selloff in the last 24 hours. The symbol recently broke its long-term bearish channel and briefly fell below its realized price, a level that reflects the average cost of all coins in circulation. After falling towards $1.11, XRP bounced back towards the $1.30 area.
On the surface, this looks like a strong rebound. In previous cycles, similar conditions emerged near major turning points. However, historical data shows that XRP often spends long periods consolidating around these levels before a real recovery begins. Current technical indicators and on the chain suggest that, despite the increasing selling pressure, the market may not be completely reset.
A breakout from the descending channel pushes XRP into a high risk zone
The acceleration of the decline of XRP was recorded between February 4 and February 6, when the price decisively broke below its descending channel. This channel has guided the price since the middle of 2025, forming a clear pattern of lower peaks and lower lows.
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After missing the lower trend line support, XRP slid towards the expected bearish zone near $0.93 and briefly touched $1.11. Although the price has since recovered, the overall structure remains weak.
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It has been recorded that similar collapses in previous cycles have rarely recorded immediate bottoms and recoveries.
The resulting price history shows why this “lower zone” has persisted for years
It was recorded that in the middle of 2022, XRP lost a key support, its achieved price line, and entered a prolonged bearish phase. After that collapse, the price continued to fall and move sideways for more than two years before a recovery began in late 2024.
This model showed that large structural breaks usually lead to long phases of stabilization, not immediate reversals. The current recovery towards $1.30 has not changed this pattern either.
It was noted that during the recent sale, XRP briefly fell below its achieved price, which is currently close to $1.47. The realized price represents the average purchase cost of all tokens in circulation. When the market price trades below this level, most of the holders are sitting with losses.
This condition identified periods of financial stress, but not necessarily eventual funds.
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A clear example comes from 2022.
In June 2022, XRP was trading near $0.31 while its realized price was near $0.56. This represents a drop of about 46% below the price obtained. Despite this significant discount, XRP did not start a bull market. Instead, it entered a prolonged bearish phase.
During the period from mid-2022 to November 2024, XRP repeatedly traded close to its achieved price, often closing just above or below. This “hug the line” phase continued for over two years. It was only after this extended period of accumulation that the significant increase towards $3.54 began.
Compared to that cycle, the current situation seems lighter.
The current price is about $1.21-$1.30, which is about 18% to 25% below the obtained price of $1.47. In 2022, the discount was almost double. This suggests that tensions are rising, but full and long-term capitulation is unlikely to happen.
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The behavior of long-term holders supports the “realized price” angle.
The net unrealized gain/loss for long-term XRP holders, or NUPL, is currently near -0.19. This shows that many long-term XRP holders are now at a loss. However, during major cycle lows, this indicator has historically fallen deeper, down to around -0.31 (early 2023), before stabilizing.
Past cycles indicate that although carriers are under stress, this stage needs more time to develop.
Note at the same time, the activity of spending money increased a lot. Since February 4th, the age of coins spent, which reflects the coin activity associated with distribution, has grown from about 79 million to more than 198 million, an increase of 150%. This indicates that previously inactive currencies are beginning to move, often towards exchanges. In the stages of a strong bottom, this measure usually decreases as the sale dries up. The current increase, which appears even after the collapse of the price, suggests that distribution operations are still continuing.
A similar surge was seen in early February followed by another drop, reinforcing that the repositioning is far from over.
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When you combine the price history obtained, NUPL, and the increased coin movement, it is clear that Ripple is in a pressure zone and has not yet entered a confirmed accumulation phase.
The XRP price structure shows why 0.93 remains the key test
All these indicators on the chain feed into the price structure. Ripple remains Below its broken channel and below the realized price, making the downside risk high.
The next major support is located near $0.93. This level is in line with channel predictions and Fibonacci retracement zones, making it a pivot point where buyers can try to defend the price.
If $0.93 fails, the next major bearish zone appears near $0.52, which formed a long-term base during the 2022-2023 bear market.
On the positive side, Ripple must regain the level of $1.47 first to regain the confidence of the owners. The price needs to go above $1.69 and $1.97 to improve the structure in the medium term.
Until Ripple regains the price achieved with NUPL stabilizing and spending currency activity remaining low for a significant period, all Ripple price rebounds will likely face new sales pressure.
