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XRP has been under pressure amid a broader decline in the cryptocurrency market. The symbol continues to trade below the persistent trend line that began at the beginning of the year. Several discovery attempts fail, reinforcing negative control in the short term.
Despite the ongoing decline, historical patterns suggest that this phase may precede a recovery. Similar artistic arrangements have been turning points in the past. It should be noted July 2024.
XRP could see its history repeat itself
The market capitalization to realized value index, or MVRV, shows that XRP has been trading below the 1.0 threshold for a long time. An MVRV ratio of less than 1.0 often indicates that an asset is undervalued compared to its historical cost basis. This condition may reflect players giving up in the short term.
The green bars in the MVRV model indicate That XRP’ has fallen“, which indicates a possible bottom formation. Historically, such readings have occurred after the MVRV has been below 1.0 for about 15% of the trading days. These periods often coincide with reversal phases rather than long declines.
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A similar system appeared in July 2024. After similar MVRV readings, XRP increased 51% in a few days. While past performance does not guarantee future results, the data indicates that XRP may be approaching From the recovery phase if the historical trends are repeated.
On-chain metrics provide additional insights into changing investor behavior. The number of addresses holding at least 10,000 XRP has begun to stabilize after a noticeable decline. This group represents medium-sized cetaceans rather than large whales.
This latest increase comes after the largest decline in these addresses since December 2020. Historically, renewed participation by these holders comes after an accumulation of Investments from the biggest investors in XRP. Increased confidence among smaller participants often reflects a gradual improvement in confidence in price stability and upside potential from the big horses.
The price of XRP aims to end the downward trend
XRP is traded At $1.42 at the time of writing, it holds the critical support level of $1.36. Maintaining this rule is essential to maintain a bullish outlook in the near term. However, the asset remains trapped under a downward trend line that has rejected price rallies three times this year.
While the improvement in the reading of MVRV and the growth process supports a constructive perspective, confirmation is still awaited. A decisive move above $1.57 is needed to validate the breakout. Flipping this level into support will overcome the $1.50 resistance and break the downtrend structure based on it. Such a change could open a path towards $1.91, representing a significant extension of the recovery.
If the upward momentum weakens, XRP can continue in consistency in its current range. A break below $1.36 will change the bearish structure. In this scenario, the downside risk could extend towards $1.11, invalidating the recovery thesis and reinforcing the selling pressure in the broader direction of the XRP price.
