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The price of XRP faced new pressure after a sharp rejection near its recent highs. The coin has fallen by almost 10% in the last 24 hours, and remains about 13% below the $1.67 level reached on February 15. Reflecting this decrease is not just a routine correction.
It reflects a deeper change below the surface: XRP whales are starting to sell off, while long-term holders (HODLers) are trying to absorb the supply. The fate of this showdown between whales and HODLers may play a decisive role in predicting the price of XRP in the coming weeks.
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The rising wedge and negative divergence pattern show that sellers are defending key levels
The price of XRP has been trading in a rising wedge pattern since early February. A rising wedge is a bearish structure on charts where price moves between converging trend lines, but the advance weakens over time. This pattern often ends with a crash, and the current structure suggests a 26% correction potential if support fails.
Momentum indicators were already warning that weakness was building. Between January 26 and February 15, fig XRP price A lower peak, meaning that each peak is weaker than the previous one.
However, in the same period, the Relative Strength Index (or RSI) peaked higher. The RSI indicator is a tool that measures buying and selling strength. When the price weakens while the RSI rises, a hidden negative divergence forms.
This indicates that the bullish movement is losing real support, and the current XRP price trend may continue.
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This divergence became evident on February 15, as the price of XRP temporarily rose to $1.67. Instead of breaking above the bearish wedge, the candle formed a long upper shadow. This shadow indicates that sellers intervene aggressively and force the price.
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Since that rejection, the price of XRP has already fallen by about 13%. This pullback pushed the coin closer to the lower boundary of the rising wedge, putting the risk of a breakout at the forefront. This technical weakness has become a central factor in the XRP price outlook, as the structure currently favors sellers unless buyers take back control.
XRP whales are selling millions of coins as holders try to prevent a collapse
Reject near $1.67 was not accidental. Chain data shows that XRP whales have been actively selling during the rally. Wallets holding between 100 million and 1 billion XRP reduced their holdings from 8.59 billion to 8.58 billion XRP. This means that approx 10 million XRPequivalent to about $15 million at the current market price, were sold during this period.
He also sold smaller whales holding between 10 million and 100 million XRP in abundance. Its holdings have dropped from 10.91 billion (as of early February 12) to 10.87 billion XRP at press time. This represents another 40 million XRP, worth about $60 million, entering the market. In total, XRP whales sold about 50 million XRP, worth about $75 million, during the recent attempted rally.
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At the same time, long-term holders began to buy. Holders’ net position change data show that holders increased their positions by about 127 million XRB on February 13th At about 150 million XRP now, a 17% increase. This indicates that some investors are trying to absorb the amount of whales and stabilize the market.
However, the volume of purchases remained limited. On February 1st, the same team collected more than 337 million XRP in a single wave. In comparison, the current purchase is much weaker, even more than 55% lower. This imbalance explains why the price of XRP has failed to maintain its discovery and why the price outlook is not clear.
The market now faces a battle between XRP whales distributing the supply and custodians trying to prevent a deeper correction. Long-term custodians also lack sufficient strength.
The XRP price prediction depends on the support of $1.26
It is the strongest support area for XRP price now Close to $1.26. Cost base data shows that more than 442 million XRP were collected between $1.27 and $1.28. The cost basis represents the price at which investors bought their coins. When the price returns to this level, the custodians usually defend to avoid losses.
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This makes the $1.26 area a key level on the chart, the last major support before a major drop. If the XRP price keeps trading above this level, stabilization could follow, and the expectation is that the XRP price could turn towards recovery. However, if the XRP price breaks below $1.26, the outlook changes quickly. Also, a breakout of the wedge pattern could start the moment the XRP 12-hour candle closes below the lower trend line of the wedge, then reaches $1.35.
The next support zone below this level is near $1.16, followed by $1.06. These levels are in line with the expectation of a complete collapse of the growing wedge pattern. This means that the price of XRP could go towards the $1 region if the selling pressure continues. Such a move would confirm that XRP whales are now controlling the trend.
To achieve a recovery, the XRP price must regain the level of $1.48 to reduce the immediate selling pressure. A strong recovery above $1.67 will cancel the wedge pattern and indicate that buyers are taking back control.
For now, XRP price prediction remains tied to the fight between whales and coin holders. If long holders fail to absorb the continued whale selling, a rising wedge breakout could push XRP towards $1. The next few sessions will determine who wins.
