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Bitcoin traded near $66,400 on February 19, maintaining stability after days of volatility. However, growing fears of a possible US military attack on Iran are adding uncertainty to global markets, including cryptocurrencies.
According to reports confirmed by several American media, American military officials told President Donald Trump that the options for an attack against Iran are ready and could be implemented as early as this week.
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The United States and Iran are on the verge of war with the fragile support of Bitcoin
And he has to publish The Pentagon has already moved additional aircraft and is moving a second aircraft carrier strike group to the Middle East. At the same time, Iran conducted military exercises She warned that she would retaliate if attacked.
These developments come after the nuclear talks stalled Tensions are rising over Iran’s uranium enrichment and missile programs .
The White House said diplomacy remains the preferred option, but officials also acknowledged that military action is under active consideration. This escalation has increased risks in global markets.
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reflect The recent Bitcoin price move has this uncertainty. The asset has fallen sharply from session highs above $100,000 and is now trading in the mid-$60,000s.
Short-term investors are selling at a loss, according to the SOPR Short Holders Index, which is now below 1. This means that many new buyers are exiting their positions under pressure.
Meanwhile, Bitcoin’s short-term Sharpe ratio has fallen to extremely negative levels. This indicates that recent returns have been weak compared to volatility. Historically, such circumstances appear during Periods of stress and fear in the market.
If the US launches a strike this week, Bitcoin will likely react in two stages.
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Bitcoin’s on-chain signals indicate that panic could lead to volatility
First, the markets may see an immediate decline. During sudden geopolitical shocks, investors often move to safer cash and assets. Bitcoin has always behaved as a risk asset in the first phase of global crises. SOPR data confirms that recipients of short-term finance are vulnerable and sensitive to fear.
However, the second stage may be different.
The Sharpe report indicates that Bitcoin is already oversold in the short term. Many weak hands came out. This reduces the amount of forced selling that is still possible.
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Therefore, any sharp decline may be short-lived if buyers enter at lower levels.
Additionally, geopolitical uncertainty could ultimately boost Bitcoin’s appeal. Investors often turn to assets outside traditional financial systems when global tensions rise. This transformation does not happen immediately, but tends to develop over time.
Now, Bitcoin is at a critical point. Fear remains high, and geopolitical risks are on the rise. But on-chain data suggests that much of the damage from the latest patch has already been done.
The next step will depend a lot If tensions descend into a real military conflict– or mitigate through diplomacy.
