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HBAR’s price is flat today after a sharp monthly decline of nearly 29%. It is still down about 6% in the past week. The trend seems weak, but the deeper picture is more complex. Sales demand is weak, but the number of whales has increased significantly in the last two days.
This combination of weakness and accumulation suggests that a base may be forming even if the price action still looks weak.
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Weak demand meets heavy accumulation?
HBAR always moves in a falling wedge. A wedge is usually a bullish structure because it shows sellers losing strength over time. But inside that pole, something weaker emerged. Between December 7th and 11th, the HBAR price recorded a higher low while the balance volume (OBV) recorded a lower low.
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OBV is a cumulative volume tool that tracks whether funds are flowing into or out of the token. When the price reaches a higher low, but the price declines clearly, the buyers do not have enough strength to support the rebound. This creates a bearish divergence even in a bullish pattern.
As for whales, they behave completely differently. Accounts holding at least 10 million have increased HBAR From 136.54 to 149.49. Accounts with at least 100 million HBARs increased from 40.65 to 73.62. Using only the minimum, the whales add about 3.42 billion hectares in less than 48 hours. At the current price, this stock is worth at least $445 million.
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OBV tracks trading volume on exchanges; Large OTC transfers or OTC/custody movements may not appear in the OBV, so the OBV may miss some popular activity and be a better representation of selling interests.
This discrepancy sets the stage for the next section, because whales are more likely to react to a deeper signal.
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A frequent sign that whales can be watched
Between October 17 and December 11, the price recorded a lower low while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) recorded a higher low. The RSI measures the speed of buying and selling. When the price falls, but the RSI rises, a standard bullish fork is formed. This type of divergence is associated with trend reversals.
This same deviation appeared before previous rebounds. On December 1 and 7, the model appeared, And HBAR is moving from 15%, and 12% from its lowest levels. Every movement stopped at the resistance, but this time the ramification appears in conjunction with a massive accumulation of whales. This combination makes the current reversal attempt more important than the previous one in the ESFD.
If the ceiling that stopped the previous rise breaks, the divergence could change the broader structure from bearish to bullish. This may be what whales are based on.
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The most important HBAR price levels
needs HBAR price At a daily close above $0.159. This level has not been exceeded during previous rebounds. Additionally, a break above would break the upper trend line of the wedge and pave the way for a move towards $0.198 and $0.219.
If the price weakens again, $0.122 is the line to watch. A drop below returns the HBAR to the lower boundary of the wedge. This line is weak because it has only two connection points. A break below delays any recovery and indicates that sellers are still in control of the broader trend.
Currently, the OBV is showing weak demand, the RSI is showing a bullish setup, and the whales have added about 3.42 billion HBAR to the bottom. If the HBAR can cross $0.159, the whale rally becomes a major tailwind rather than a tailwind signal.
