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Hedera managed to stage a short-term rebound after hitting a local low on December 19. Since then, the price of HBAR is about 11% at the time of writing. But this step alone does not change the bigger picture. HBAR is still down about 50% in the last three months and remains weak in the last seven days.
The problem is not only the price. The biggest concern is the behavior of the capital. As the price bounced, the data below shows the tension. Unless an unlikely ally steps in, the move could turn into a blowout trap.
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Capital flows weaken as risks of collapse increase
The first caveat comes from the flow of capital.
Chaikin Money Flow, or CMF, tracks whether large portfolio funds are flowing into or out of an asset using price and volume. When the CMF indicator is trending, it shows that the capital is slowly coming out, even if the price remains constant.
On the daily paper, The CMF indicator moves from HBAR Downward and pressing the downtrend line that has directed capital outflows for weeks. This trend line connects the lowest low in the CMF, not the price, which makes it more risky. This suggests that larger players reduce exposure over time.
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If the CMF breaks below this trend line, it will confirm a change from weak inflows to active flows. This is in line with the broader structure, as the HBAR price is still trading in a bearish channel. In this scenario, the recent 11% rebound is likely to continue and continue to succeed.
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Short shops and Bitcoin are the only potential saviors
However, there is a potential counterforce.
The derived data show a strong short bias. On Bitget, cumulative short leverage is about $9.9 million, compared to about $6 million on long leverage. This means that there are about 50% more short positions than long positions signed around the current levels.
This is only important if the price receives support from elsewhere.
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This help can come from Bitcoin. For the last seven days, it has been HBAR correlation with Bitcoin Close to 0.85. Correlation measures how closely two assets move together, where 1 means they move roughly the same way.
If it pushes Bitcoin higher, it could drag the HBAR price higher with it. This move can force a short cover, creating pressure instead of organic demand. Without the power of Bitcoin, the casino imbalance alone is not enough.
HBAR price levels to watch
The HBAR price is now near the lower trend line of the descending channel.
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If HBAR loses Zone $ 0.10, the structure will collapse more, and long sales liquidations can accelerate. This will confirm the CMF signal and potentially extend the downtrend.
To be bullish, HBAR needs Bitcoin support and a push towards $0.13. This level is in line with the top of the recent range and could trigger a wave of active short selling in the next 30 days.
Until then, the risk remains biased to the downside.
Hedera’s 11% jump is more like a dead cat’s jump. A dead bounce refers to a short-term rally that fails in a broader downtrend.
Capital flow is weakening, the structure is still bearish, and only a short squeeze led by Bitcoin can prevent a deeper collapse. Without this catalyst, the trend remains under pressure.
